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16. Future sea level rise

16. Future sea level rise - Ante-Pre-show Future...

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Ante-Pre-show: Future Legend/Diamond Dogs
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16. Sea level and climate forecast “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Niels Bohr
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Clip from An Inconvenient Truth truthclip.mov
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Flooding of NYC: An Inconvenient Truth “If Greenland broke up and melted…this is what would happen to Manhattan. They can measure this precisely, just as the scientists could predict precisely how much water would breach the levee in New Orleans… the WTC memorial … would be underwater.” Al Gore Screenshot from the movie NYC after 5 m (15 ft) sea-level rise time to sell??
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5 m
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How long to achieve Gore’s 5 m rise ? = sea level 125,000 y ago: IPCC 2001: 300-700 years; IPCC 2007: 700-1000 yr New: Greenland surging, much sooner, but >>100 yr 125,000 y ago last interglacial Otto-Bleisner et al. (2006) simulation The future: IPCC (2007) 2007 2300 2700 3100 3800 AD 2266 2364
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Pre-show: Gore vs. Fox News Peter Sinclair’s Crock of the week: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kffsux-ifKk
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Established in 1988 jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Programme 3000 scientists from more than 150 nations First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990 Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1996 Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007 Slide courtesy of Alan Robock
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In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment, of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence Extremely likely > 95% Very likely > 90% Likely > 66% More likely than not > 50% Unlikely < 33%, Very unlikely < 10% Extremely unlikely < 5% What is new: It is now very likely that humans caused recent climate change. IPCC 2007 4th Assessment Report AR4 Slide courtesy of Alan Robock
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A1F1 = fossil fuel intensive or “business as usual” IPCC 2007 FAR emissions predictions Slide from IPCC AR4
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IPCC 2007 4th Assessment Report AR4 Future Emissions Scenarios All scenarios show increasing emissions during next several decades Some scenarios show decreased emissions in latter half of 21st century Even with aggressive reductions in emissions, CO2 would rise to 2x preindustrial levels Slide courtesy of Tony Broccoli modified after IPCC AR4
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We are tracking on high CO2 scenario (A1F1) Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
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IPCC 2007 Temperature Predictions http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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IPCC NASA GISS Hadley Centre 1998 2005 Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007) Observed warming > predicted by IPCC Slide courtesy of S. Rahmstorf
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Sea-Level Forecast: IPCC 2001 & 2007 IPCC 40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100, 1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2001 error estimate: 20-80 cm IPPC 2007 error: 20-60 cm (does not include ice sheet melting) http://www.realclimate.org/images/sealevel_1.jpg 2007 2001
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IPCC Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 2010 IPCC www.ipcc.ch/pdf/.../SLW_WorkshopReport_kuala_lumpur.pdf
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IPCC misunderstood by press Jonathan Gregory surprised at press reaction to 2007 AR4 report “reduction” in amount of sea-level rise to < 60 cm by 2100 since table indicates it excludes melting in Greenland and Antarctica Table from AR4 report
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The IPCC FAR (4th assessment report) predicted a rise in global sea level by 2100 of A) 80 cm B) 10 cm C) 40 cm D) 1 m Clicker question
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