Unformatted text preview: T  D} )(1Pr { D + } ) = 0 . 867 × . 0074 + (11) × (1. 0074) = 0 . 00642 . 2. Find the probability of having the disease given the test comes up positive Pr { D +  T + } . Answer: Use Bayes’ rule Pr { D +  T + } = Pr { T +  D + } Pr { D + } Pr { T + } = . 867 × . 0074 . 00642 = 1 . 3. Is D + independent of T + ? Why or why not? Answer: No, they are dependent because Pr { D +  T + } = 1 which is different from Pr { D + } = 0 . 0074 . Knowing that the test came back positive T + changes the probability of having Hepatitis C from 0.0074 to 1....
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 Fall '09
 Hendrix
 Conditional Probability, Probability, Probability theory, D−

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