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U hx tayh tyhvu h 4 2 q1 r1 4 5 76 sta

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Unformatted text preview: £ ¢§ £ ¢ § 5 £ ¢§ £ ¢ © § # 4 £ ¥ $1#'…¨¦¥¤&%rq¦¥¤¢ individual smokes 75 § £¢  ©h ©H )` © £ ¥¦¤p„awvE„aƒv‚€tYUEF§  ¦¥¤¢ htYHE©UawH9)€hXVU©F§  $"¦¥¤yx%rq¦¥¤&F¨¦¥'¢ # 4 £ ¢ )§ # 4 £ ¢ ©§ £ Hawv # 4 s$3u¥ ` tVU # 4 $3¥ U aYH #4 srq¥ h XVU #4 $"¥ Find the probability that a person develops cancer Useful for computing the probability of the intersection given that the person smokes. when : ¡ Conditional Probability is given Conditional Probability easy to get without definition. ¡  U  hX TaYH© tYHVU © h §£ ¨¦¥'¢ §£ ¦¥¤¢ §#4 £ 2$"¦¥'¢ © Q&1#'¢ ¥ r1#¤¢ §¥4 £ ©§ 5 £ 76 STA 2023 c B.Presnell & D.Wackerly - Lecture 6 STA 2023 c B.Presnell & D.Wackerly - Lecture 6 77 EXAMPLE : (Screening for quality) Shipment of 30 cameras, 6 defective. Choose 2 at random. If both EXAMPLE : (#3.61, p. 137) Microchip: good, accept shipment. Find the prob. accept shipment. © TU RE§ © i¥ . Find the probability that a microchip does not fail : If first camera known to be good, what is (cond.) prob. second is good? on its first use!!! H© &#  ¢ Start with 30 cameras, 6 bad. If first chosen is good, when we select the second, ¡ @ 8 ©p#$"¥ 4 ©§ 5 £ ¥ r1#'¢ ¡  © a ¦¥EU  £ E©  § £ ¤§ 5 £ ¢ © § # 4 £ ¨ ¦¥'¢ ¡ ¥ r1#¤&%$"¦¥'¢ ¡ £ #4¥ $"‚© ¡ . shipment accepted . STA 2023 c B.Presnell & D.Wackerly - Lecture 6 79 # ¥ £ )'  H © (1 © § § "(¥¢ '¢ § ) '(¥'¢ © 5£ ( )4 £ § #£ %7'  H` © ( © %$"(¥¢ '¢ %6#¤¦¥'¢ §# 4 £ ©§ 5 £ ( 78 STA 2023 c B.Presnell & D.Wackerly - Lecture 6 Note that U c` aXVW © tHH £ XH` F¨¥ r1#¤…¨¦¥'&&2rq¦¥¤¢ ` a © § 5 £ ¢ § £ ¢ © § # 4 £ c “Does not fail during first year” there are 29 cameras, 23 good, 6 bad. @ Chip lasts from first use through first year , !   . :   E¥ r...
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