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Unformatted text preview: OR Models Problem Set # 6 Fall Semester 2010 Due: Thursday, November 17 NOTE 1: In each problem, “formulate as a Markov chain” means that you should (i) clearly define the states, (ii) give the statetransition diagram, and (iii) give the onestep transition matrix. 1. [Conditional Probability Review] Widgets are delivered to our store from three plants. Plants 1, 2, and 3 respectively produce 10%, 50%, and 40% of our total demand. Historical data indicates that 1%, 3%, and 4% of the respective production at plants 1, 2, and 3 are defective. An item at our store is selected at random. (a) What is the probability that the item is from plant 1? from plant 2? from plant 3? (b) Find the probability that the item is defective. (c) Suppose we tested the item and determined that it’s defective. What is the probability that the item is from plant 1? from plant 2? from plant 3? (d) Suppose we tested the item and determined that it’s not defective. What is the proba bility that the item is from plant 1? from plant 2? from plant 3?...
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This note was uploaded on 12/19/2011 for the course M E 366l taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at University of Texas at Austin.
 Fall '08
 Staff

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