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# week2da - Spring 2010 DecisionAnalysis MS405 Modeling...

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Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 Week 2 1 Decision Analysis   MS 405    Modeling Decisions Kemal Kılıç Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences

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Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 Week 1 - Review What is Decision Analysis? Decision Analysis Process Elements of Decision Problems Values and Objectives Decisions to Make Uncertain Events Consequences Week 2 2
Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 What you were supposed to do! Before today: Read the first two chapters, solve the suggested problems, or even better as many problems as possible, from the back of the book. Suggested Problems: Page 36 2.1 Page 37 2.10 Page 38 2.12 This week : Chapter 3 – Structuring Decisions Decisions Trees and Influence Diagrams. Read the chapter. Week 2 3

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Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 Week 2 Objectives: Having identified the elements of a Decision Problem, how should one begin the modeling process? Creating a decision model requires three fundamental steps 1. Filter & operationalize the objectives ( Revisit ) 2. Structure the elements in a logical framework Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees 1. Refinement and precise definition of all of the elements How to Evaluate the Decisions Trees and Influence Diagrams? (Chapter 4) Week 2 4
Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 Step 1:Filter & Operationalize the Objectives Process of Identifying Objectives 1. Develop a wish list. What do you want? What should you want? 2. Identify alternatives. What is the perfect alternative, a terrible alternative, some reasonable alternatives, what is good or bad about each? 3. Consider problems and shortcomings. What is wrong or right with your organization? What needs fixing? 4. Predict consequences. What has occurred that was good or bad? What might occur that you care about? Week 2 5

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Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Kemal Kılıç, Sabancı Üniversitesi Spring, 20 Spring, 2010 Process of Identifying Objectives (Cont.) 5. Identify goals, constraints, and guidelines. What are your aspirations? What limitations are placed on you? 6. Consider different perspectives. What would your competitor or constituency be concerned about? At some time in the future, what would concern you? 7. Determine strategic objectives. What are your ultimate objectives? What are your values that are absolutely fundamental? 8. Determine generic objectives. What objectives do you have for your customers, your employees, your shareholders, yourself? What environmental, social, economic, or health and safety objectives are important?
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week2da - Spring 2010 DecisionAnalysis MS405 Modeling...

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