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Unformatted text preview: BIT 2405 Quantitative Methods I Chapter 4a This Week Lectures Hawkes Today Next Week Lectures Hawkes Hawkes 3.X due at 11:59 pm Monday Night , 2/7. I posted StandardDeckOfCards.pdf in the Hawkes Help folder on Scholar. This may help you with your Hawkes Certificates that involve using a deck of playing cards. Show you the cards and what are Face Cards Suits And such You will need to understand the structure to figure out probabilities. Questions? Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability Today Next Time KEY Lecture # Chapter TEXT Quantitative Methods I, Anderson, Sweeney & Williams Hawkes Learning Systems: Statistics HLS Secti on Topic Sectio n Topic 06 Ch04a.ppt 07 Ch04b.ppt 4.1 Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities 4.1 Classical Probability 4.2 Events and their Probabilities 4.2 Probability Rules 4.3 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 4.3 Counting Rules 4.4 Conditional Probability 4.4 Additional Counting Techniques (Complete 4.1, 4.2, & 4.3 FIRST) Weve Been Looking at Elements In Reality by Measuring Characteristics and then Characterizing the Datasets. Reality ? Now We Will Consider a Different WAY to Look at Some Things in Reality. Reality Reality Things That Can Be Viewed as Games of Chance with a number of Possible Random Outcomes. Reality PROBABILITY Probability as a Numerical Measure of the Likelihood of Occurrence 1 .5 Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence Probability: The event is very unlikely to occur. The occurrence of the event is just as likely as it is unlikely. The event is almost certain to occur. An Experiment and Its Sample Space An experiment is any process that generates welldefined outcomes. The sample space for an experiment is the set of all experimental outcomes. An experimental outcome is also called a sample point . We look at a situation in reality and see if we can look at it as an experiment to gain insight. Joe Tailgates at the VT home games. Whats the likelihood Joe drinks alcohol at the next tailgate? If Joe ALWAYS drinks at tailgates, then its not an experiment because there is only ONE outcome. BTW: If Joe NEVER drinks at tailgates, then its also not an experiment. If Joe drinks sometimes and other times he doesnt drink at tailgates, then we can view this as an experiment . There are 2 sample points in the sample space: 1. Joe drinks & 2. Joe doesnt drink. An Experiment and Its Sample Space Experiment: Coin Toss Sample Space: S = {Heads, Tails} Sample Points (Experimental Outcomes): Let n number of sample points n = 2 Count all the possible Outcomes....
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 Spring '08
 PLKitchin

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