LubotskyNotes

LubotskyNotes - Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis...

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Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings. Darren Lubotsky Journal of Political Economy vol. 115, no. 5, 2007 Presentation for EC250A, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 1
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1. OVERVIEW Objective To provide empirical evidence concerning (1) immigrant assimilation (2) skill levels of immigration cohorts in the United States using longitudinal data from 1951 to 1997. Compare these results to those obtained from repeated cross-sections of the Census. Consider the impact of selective permanent out- migration and temporary out-migration on cohort skill and immigrant assimilation. Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 2
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Results Repeated cross-section: (1) deteriorating quality of more recent arrival cohorts (2) very rapid assimilation of immigrants into labour market Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 3
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Longitudinal: (1) Downward trend in skill level is slower than in the repeated cross-section results and there is evidence of increasing skill levels in more recent cohorts. Immigrants that move back and forth to the US – “temporary migrants” are concentrated among low-skill workers. Repeated cross-section data places these workers in the cohort associated with their most recent arrival and therefore overestimates the deterioration of skills of immigrant cohorts over time. (2) Much less rapid assimilation of immigrants who remain in the United States. Selective permanent out-migration of low-skilled workers means the repeated cross-section results overestimate the relative earnings growth among immigrants who remain in the U.S. Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 4
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Motivation Evidence concerning immigrant skill levels and assimilation is important for formulating immigration policy Deteriorating skill levels?? concern about drain on social services – Welfare reforms 1996 -limited access in first five years concern about impact on low-skill native earnings and employment control quality/number of immigrants – – Immigration Act 1990 – increased number of visas allocated on basis of occupation/skill – calls for measures to limit illegal immigrants, perhaps adopt ‘point system’ Assimilation?? More rapid assimilation addresses concerns above. Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 5
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2. DATA Match household surveys to Social Security records using social security number. Household Surveys: Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) 1990, 1991 Current Population Survey (CPS) March 1994 information on: year, place of birth citizenship educational attainment immigrant’s year of arrival ‘to stay’ self-reported income (CPS) Social Security Records – 1951 to 1997 covered earnings quarters of covered employment each year race gender date of birth Presentation, March 4, 2008 Susan Johnson 6
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Immigrant: anyone born outside U.S. -but not if – born to
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LubotskyNotes - Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis...

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