HW01_Econ140A_2011Fall

HW01_Econ140A_2011Fall - Economics 140A Fall 2011 Professor...

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Economics 140A Fall 2011 Professor Startz Homework 1 Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University, made the news predicting an Obama re-election based on his book The Keys to the White House. Lichtman says the vote for the incumbent can be predicted by the number of yes answers to 13 questions. (Not everyone agrees, although the system has worked historically. See http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/ for example.) Here are the 13 questions. 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party’s candidate is the sitting president. 4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. 5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds
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This note was uploaded on 12/26/2011 for the course ECON 140a taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at UCSB.

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HW01_Econ140A_2011Fall - Economics 140A Fall 2011 Professor...

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