Slides_Econ140A_Dynamic_Models_and_Forecasting

Slides_Econ140A_Dynamic_Models_and_Forecasting - 11/9/2011...

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Unformatted text preview: 11/9/2011 1 Dynamic Models and Forecasting Copyright Dick Startz 1 Goals Dynamic models Lagged exogenous variables Lagged endogenous variables How to forecast from regression Forecast evaluation Out of sample forecasts What vs. What if Future RHS variables Time series models Copyright Dick Startz 2 Lagged variables ? = ? + 1 + 2 1 + ? Copyright Dick Startz 3 Impulse response Period ? 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 2 3 0 0 Impulse response Copyright Dick Startz 4 Lagged variables ? = ? + 1 + 2 1 + ? Copyright Dick Startz 5 Step response Period ? 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 + 2 3 1 1 + 2 Step response Copyright Dick Startz 6 11/9/2011 2 Lagged dependent variable ? = ? + + ? 1 + ? Copyright Dick Startz 7 Impulse response Period ?...
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This note was uploaded on 12/26/2011 for the course ECON 140a taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at UCSB.

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Slides_Econ140A_Dynamic_Models_and_Forecasting - 11/9/2011...

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