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M119L11to12-page3 - P B A = the “updated” probability...

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(Lesson 11: Multiplication Rule; 4-4) 4.16 Solution to Example 2 Because we are drawing cards with replacement, the draws are independent. P A-1st and K-2nd and K-3rd ( ) = P A-1st ( ) P K-2nd ( ) P K-3rd ( ) = 1 13 1 13 1 13 = 1 2197 0.000455 ( ) Tree PART B: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
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Unformatted text preview: P B A ( ) = the “updated” probability that B occurs, given that A occurs. Technical Note: The idea of “updating” probabilities is a popular idea among Bayesian statisticians, though it is controversial....
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