Rubinstein2005-page51

Rubinstein2005-page51 - stated is different? Simplifying...

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October 21, 2005 12:18 master Sheet number 49 Page number 33 Choice 33 c. 200 people will be saved. d. With probability 1/3, all 600 will be saved and with probability 2/3, none will be saved. While only 22% of the Frst group chose a , 72% of the second group chose c . My experience offering both questions to 170 grad- uate students in New York, Princeton, and Tel Aviv is similar even though they were the same students who responded to the two ques- tions: 31% of the students chose a and 53% chose c . These are “problematic” results since, by any reasonable criterion a and c are identical alternatives, as are b and d . Thus, the choice from { a , b } should be consistent with the choice from { c , d } . The results expose the sensitivity of choice to the framing of the alterna- tives. What is more basic to rational decision making than taking the same choice when only the manner in which the problems are
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Unformatted text preview: stated is different? Simplifying the Choice Problem and the Use of Similarities The following experiment was also conducted by Tversky and Kah-neman. One group of subjects was presented with the following choice: Choose one of the two roulette games a or b . Your prize is the one corresponding to the outcome of the chosen roulette game as speciFed in the following tables: ( a ) Color White Red Green Yellow Chance % 90 6 1 3 Prize $ 45 30 15 ( b ) Color White Red Green Yellow Chance % 90 7 1 2 Prize $ 45 10 15 A different group of subjects was presented the same background information and asked to choose between: ( c ) Color White Red Green Blue Yellow Chance % 90 6 1 1 2 Prize $ 45 30 15 15...
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