Rubinstein2005-page52 - 12:18 34 master Sheet number 50...

October 21, 2005 12:18 master Sheet number 50 Page number 34
34 Lecture Three
and
( d )
Color White Red Green Blue Yellow
Chance % 90 6 1 1 2
Prize $ 0 45 45 − 10 − 15
In the original experiment, 58% of the subjects in the first group
chose a , while nobody in the second group chose c . I presented
the two problems, one after the other, to 170 graduate students in
New York, Princeton, and Tel Aviv: 43% chose a and 10% chose c .
Interestingly, the median response time among the students who
answered a was 60 seconds, whereas the median response time of
the students who answered b was 91 seconds.
The results demonstrate a common procedure people practice
when confronted with a complicated choice problem. We often
transfer the complicated problem into a simpler one by “canceling”
similar elements. While d clearly dominates c , the comparison be-
tween a and b is not as easy. Many subjects “cancel” the probabilities
of Yellow and Red and are left with comparing the prizes of Green,
a process that leads them to choose a .
Incidentally, several times in the past, when I presented these