October 21, 2005 12:18masterSheet number 50 Page number 3434Lecture Threeand(d)ColorWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowChance %906112Prize $04545−10−15In the original experiment, 58% of the subjects in the first groupchosea, while nobody in the second group chosec.I presentedthe two problems, one after the other, to 170 graduate students inNew York, Princeton, and Tel Aviv: 43% choseaand 10% chosec.Interestingly, the median response time among the students whoansweredawas 60 seconds, whereas the median response time ofthe students who answeredbwas 91 seconds.The results demonstrate a common procedure people practicewhen confronted with a complicated choice problem.We oftentransfer the complicated problem into a simpler one by “canceling”similar elements. Whiledclearly dominatesc, the comparison be-tweenaandbis not as easy. Many subjects “cancel” the probabilitiesof Yellow and Red and are left with comparing the prizes of Green,a process that leads them to choosea.Incidentally, several times in the past, when I presented these
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