October 21, 2005 12:18
master
Sheet number 50 Page number 34
34
Lecture Three
and
(
d
)
Color
White
Red
Green
Blue
Yellow
Chance %
90
6
1
1
2
Prize $
0
45
45
−
10
−
15
In the original experiment, 58% of the subjects in the first group
chose
a
, while nobody in the second group chose
c
.
I presented
the two problems, one after the other, to 170 graduate students in
New York, Princeton, and Tel Aviv: 43% chose
a
and 10% chose
c
.
Interestingly, the median response time among the students who
answered
a
was 60 seconds, whereas the median response time of
the students who answered
b
was 91 seconds.
The results demonstrate a common procedure people practice
when confronted with a complicated choice problem.
We often
transfer the complicated problem into a simpler one by “canceling”
similar elements. While
d
clearly dominates
c
, the comparison be-
tween
a
and
b
is not as easy. Many subjects “cancel” the probabilities
of Yellow and Red and are left with comparing the prizes of Green,
a process that leads them to choose
a
.
Incidentally, several times in the past, when I presented these
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- Fall '10
- aswa
- Decision Making, Noncototient, Decision making software, Nontotient, median response time
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