102Chapter2 - What Are Statistics, And Why Are They...

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Chapter 2 Principles Of Science And Systems
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What Is Science? Science Depends On Skepticism And Accuracy Deductive And Inductive Reasoning Are Both Useful Deductive: Use Existing Knowledge to Find New Facts Inductive: Generalize from Observations Testable Hypotheses And Theories Are Essential Tools
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Basic Principles of Science Empiricism: Experiment and Observation Uniformitarianism Physical Laws Uniform in Space and Time This is a Finding , Not An Assumption Parsimony (KISS: Keep it Simple, Students) Simple isn’t Automatically Right Unnecessarily Complex is Usually Wrong
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Basic Principles of Science Uncertainty Theories always open to correction or Improvement Reality Check: Atoms are Real Repeatability When in Doubt, You can Repeat Observations Testable Questions
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Testable Hypotheses And Theories Testable Hypotheses And Theories Are Essential Tools Commonly Used as a Criterion for Whether an Idea is Scientific Repeat Observations, Logical Consistency Has to be “Risky”
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Unformatted text preview: What Are Statistics, And Why Are They Important? • Exploring Science Understanding Probability Helps Reduce Uncertainty • Statistics Can Indicate The Probability That Your Results Were Random • Experimental Design Can Reduce Bias • Models Are An Important Experimental Strategy • Need to Understand Common Statistical Fallacies A Few Common Statistical Fallacies • Confusing order and probability • Long runs do not make an event less probable • Long negative runs do not make an event more probable • Spurious patterns • Clusters don’t make events more or less probable. • After-the-fact probabilities • Treating non-random events as chance Systems • Systems Describe Interactions • Systems Can Be Described In Terms Of Their Characteristics • Systems May Exhibit Stability, Cyclic Behavior or Instability • Scientific Consensus And Conflict • Detecting Pseudoscience Relies On Independent, Critical Thinking...
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This document was uploaded on 12/31/2011.

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102Chapter2 - What Are Statistics, And Why Are They...

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