# hw1 - 3 Sample from a jar of 1,000 balls where you allow...

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ChE/MEE 138 — ChE/MEE 212 (F2000) THE PRINCIPLES OF RISK ANALYSIS Homework #1 The purpose of this homework is to allow you to prepare your own individual capability for conducting numerical “random sampling” experiments. For this purpose, you will need a random number generator on your computer, and a very basic programming facility to manipulate the data obtained by sampling towards the particular question being addressed. 1. Carry out experiments to simulate the tossing of a coin. Formulate some question of interest to you and perform the experiments needed to answer it. Comment. 2. Carry out experiments to simulate the throw of a true, six-faceted die. Formulate a question of interest to you and perform the experiments needed to develop and answer. Comment.
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Unformatted text preview: 3. Sample from a jar of 1,000 balls, where you allow your random number generator to deﬁne, without your knowledge , the proportion that is black (the rest we will call white). Now, do repeat trials, each trial consisting of 10 samples. Based on the outcome of each trial, guess the proportion of black balls in the jar, record your guess, and repeat. Plot sample results and your guesses as a function of trial number, and continue until you think you have “moral certainty” that your guess is within 2% of the true value. Then stop, look up the true value and comment. If you wish, you can continue the sampling, see what happens, and comment again....
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## This note was uploaded on 12/29/2011 for the course CHE 10 taught by Professor Doyle,f during the Fall '08 term at UCSB.

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