Supply_aircraft_cost_model

Supply_aircraft_cost_model - Analysis of Air Transportation...

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Unformatted text preview: Analysis of Air Transportation Systems Cost of Air Transportation Supply Dr. Antonio A. Trani Civil and Environmental Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University June 9-12, 2003 NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 1 Material Presented in this Section • Review of aircraft cost models (supply costs in air transportation) • How supply of service affects the operational economics of the service • Apply aircraft performance functions to derive supply relationships NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 2 Aircraft Supply Cost Modeling • Supply function costs are a very important component in the analysis of air transportation systems • Supply costs are driven by the economics of the aircraft used, the network structure of the service provider (degree of “hub consolidation”), labor costs, etc. • Two views of the world to derive supply costs in air transportation: - Fare-based models - Life-cycle cost models based on actual information about organizational cost components NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 3 Taxonomy of Air Transportation Supply Models Supply Cost Models Airline Fare-Based GA/Corporate Cost of Service NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 4 Fare-Based Models • Look into the public record and attempt to capture the average fare paid by users in a given air transportation segment • No attempt made to evaluate individual costs of providing service • Fares vary dramatically in NAS (specially for airlinetype operations) • These models have appeal because they are simple to derive once you have good access to the fare data • Best sources of data: airline bookings, DOT BTS DB1B data (go to http://transtats.bts.org) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 5 Fare-Based Models • We provide you with a sample fare-based model developed at Virginia Tech to predict commercial airline costs across NAS • This work is part of an integrated transportation systems assessment plan to evaluate new NASA concepts like SATS - Small Aircraft Transportation System • The model has also been used in mode split analysis calibration for the FAA NAS Strategy Simulator (recently) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 6 What is the DB1B Database? • A 10% sample of tickets sold in the country by carriers • Only a sample (so be aware of possible errors in low density markets) • Collected by DOT and published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) at http:// transtats.bts.org • Three types of records are collected: - Coupon - Market - Ticket NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 7 Brief Summaries of Each Record • Coupon Record - Operating carrier, origin and destination airports, number of passengers, fare class, coupon type, trip break indicator, gateway indicator, and distance • Market Record - Includes such items as passengers, fares, and distances for each directional market • Ticket Record - Reporting carrier, prorated market fare, number of market coupons, market miles flown, and carrier change indicators NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 8 Sample Coupon Records NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 9 Sample Market Records Fare Information NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 10 Summary of Information Contained in DB1B Records NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 11 Latitude (degrees) Sample Information Provided by Combining DB1B Records NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 12 Sample Procedure to Obtain a Fare-based Model Requires a good data mining software (to handle large records such as SAS, SPSS, or even Matlab) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 13 Fare-Based Models Coach Business First Class DB1B records (first quarter 2000) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 14 Sample Fares Extracted from DB1B NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 15 First and Business Class Fares in NAS NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 16 Virginia Tech Fare-Based Models (Commercial Airline Service in the year 2000) Coach (general model) For distance > 50 miles fare = distance / (-0.14 + 0.039 * distance0.654) R-square = 0.76 Coach (above 100 statute miles) For distance > 100 miles fare = distance / ( -0.26 + 0.027 * distance0.727) R-square = 0.78 For distance > 50 miles Business (general model) fare = distance / (-1.599 + 0.617 * distance0.262) R-square = 0.46 Business (above 100 statute miles) For distance > 100 miles fare = distance / (-0.67 + 0.241 * distance0.3508) R-square = 0.55 Coach fares (54,300 OD pairs), Business and First Class fares (13,200 OD pairs) Source: DOT DB1B year 2000 data (all 10% samples) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 17 Fare Based Models (Graphical) 1.5 Coach - general Coach > 100 sm Business - general Business > 100 sm Fare ($/seat-mile) 1 TextEnd 0.5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Distance (Statute Miles) Models are restricted to distances above 100 miles Source: DB1B data (12 million records, year 2000) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 18 Sample Airline Fuel Cost Function 0.155 Fuel per Seat-Mile (lb/seat-nm) Fuel per seat-mile (lb/seat-nm) 0.15 Trend Line (Short-Haul Trips) 0.145 0.14 0.135 TextEnd 0.13 0.125 300 350 400 450 500 550 Trip Length (nm) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 19 Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Models • An attempt to derive specific cost components of the service • Each cost category is modeled as a state variable (an accumulator over time) with cost activities modeled over a long period of time (life cycle) • Logistic support and maintenance actions are considered in the analysis NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 20 Sample General Aviation (GA) LCC Model • Life-cycle GA models developed for NASA Langley Research Center • Two types of models: - Generic model to predict cost for any size and weight given an engine technology - Specific GA aircraft models GA technologies considered: - SE = single engine - ME = multi-engine piston and turboprop - Jet = jet engine aircraft NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 21 General Costs Categories Considered in the Model • Variable costs (fuel, maintenance hrs., parts, miscellaneous) • Fixed costs (hull insurance, liability, software, miscellaneous) • Periodic costs (engine overhaul, paint, interiors, flight deck upgrades) • Personnel costs (captain and first officer - if applicable) • Training costs (crew training and recurrent training, maintenance training) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 22 General Costs Categories Considered in the Model (continuation) • Facilities costs (hangar space, office lease, miscellaneous) • Depreciation cost (amortization of aircraft value) Data Sources: Business and Commercial Aviation and ARG/US data (years 2001-2003) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 23 Generic LCC GA Cost Model Derives costs from fundamental relationships such aircraft design and operational parameters Acquisition Cost ($) • Fuel Flow (lb./hr.) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 24 Sample Generic GA Cost Model Assumption: 600 hours of operation per year Yearly Direct Operating Cost ($1x 106) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Acquisition Cost ($1x 106) 60 70 Source of aircraft prices: Business and Commercial Aviation (2001) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 25 Sample Results of the Generic Aircraft Model Data: Virginia Tech analysis of data published by Business and Commercial Aviation (2001) Jet > 20,000 lb Jet > 10,000 lb Jet < 10,000 lb NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 26 Aircraft Specific Cost Models • Employed when one individual aircraft or technology is to be evaluated in great detail • Considers actual costs (if available) or scaled costs from other aircraft if the technology is not mature • An example model provided in the following pages was developed to help NASA Langley establish baseline costs for new generation of very light business jets like the Eclipse 500 and Safire NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 27 Aircraft Specific Cost Model (Eclipse 500) NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 28 Modeling Partial Causal Diagram Vehicle Performance Function NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 29 Vehicle Performance Functions Mission Profile 1 TOD1 Stage length = 800 nm Fuel = 1082 lb Travel time = 2.40 hours Cost Per Mile = $ 3.30 Dj TOC1 TOD2 Dj TOC2 Mission Profile 2 Oi Oi Stage length = 250 nm Fuel = 550 lb Travel time = 1.00 hours Cost per Mile = $ 4.10 NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 30 Sample Aircraft Specific Model 2.5 400 nm stage length Cost per Seat Mile ($) 2 600 nm stage length 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Flight Hours per Year 1 Professional Pilot, $2.5/gallon fuel cost, 70% load factor Eclipse 500 with Pratt and Whitney 610F Engines NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 31 Summary of Costs of Air Transportation Supply • Corporate Jet aircraft - 50-350 cents ASM • Regional turboprop aircraft (EMB-120, ATR-72) - 9.2 to 11.5 cents per ASM • Regional jets (Bombardier CRJ-200, Embraer 145) - 9.5 to14.0 cents per ASM • Transport aircraft (Boeing 737-800, Airbus A321) - 6.1 to 8.2 cents per ASM NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 32 Sample Aircraft Fuel Efficiency in Cruise Passenger-Miles per Gallon All Seats Filled Passengers-Miles per Gallon 100 90 88 80 70 60 50 70 69 62 57 51 58 51 45 44 40 41 30 20 10 0 DHC8 - EMB120 CRJ-100 B737B737MD-80 B757A320 Cirrus Lancair 44 pas. - 33 pas. - 50 pas. 400 - 165 600 - 106 140 pas, 200 - 200 140 pas. SR-20 - 4 300 - 4 150 pas. pas. pas. pas pas Eclipse 500 - 5 pas Aircraft Type NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 33 Remarks • Transportation supply functions are necessary to understand the dynamic relationships between supply and demand forces in air transportation • Without adequate supply-based aircraft models, the analysis of NAS impact metrics such as delays, capacity and costs to users is not possible • Fuel costs is just one component of the total LCC of operating aircraft. Other costs components need to be specified in cost-benefit studies • We advise the use of LCC cost models in NAS costbenefit analysis NEXTOR - National Center of Excellence for Aviation Research 34 Where Can I get Information on Airline Operating Costs? • DOT Form 41, P52 Schedule (available at BTS web site) Air Transportation Systems (A.A. Trani) 35 Example Information Air Transportation Systems (A.A. Trani) ...
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This note was uploaded on 12/31/2011 for the course CEE 5614 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at Virginia Tech.

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