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Unformatted text preview: 1 Computer Assignment #2 Conditional Probability Write MATLAB programs to solve the following problems. You may work together in groups of at most 3. (Turn in one copy of your results.) Applying the knowledge you gained in the last computer assignment and in class, this assignment is intended to give an experimental veri f cation of the de f nition and application of conditional probability given by P ( B | A ) = P ( AB ) / P ( A ) This is done through the simulation of a deceptively simple card game sometimes played by pro- fessional card players. Unlike many crooked games of chance in which the cards themselves are dishonest, the cards in this game are honest. But the professional, through the application of con- ditional probability, is able to get a large payoff from victims unaware of this simple principle. The assignment is divided into two tasks. The f rst one is intended to establish the honesty of the cards, i.e. , your simulation program. The second part will lead you to f nd the card players secret, and demonstrate how to mathematically arrive at his chance of winning. PART A: The Cards The game is played with three cards, the faces of which are as follows: Card#1 Card#2 Card#3 Side a white white red Side b white red red These cards are placed in a hat and shuf F ed around so no one knows which card is which. The victim then draws a card out of the hat and places it F at on the table. Again, no one knows what is on the other side of the card. (Or do they?) Depending on the color he sees, the professional has...
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This note was uploaded on 01/02/2012 for the course CIVIL ENG 408 at USC.