Ibbs_Lectures 9 _ 10

Ibbs_Lectures 9 _ 10 - CE167: Engineering and Project...

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CE167: Engineering and Project Management Lectures 9-11
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Summary Risk Management: Identification Analysis Mitigation Lessons Learned Decision Trees, Expected Value and Decision Analysis Professor William Ibbs 2
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Risk Management CE167: Engineering and Project Management
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Risk can be defined by three attributes: What can fail (possible outcomes)? How likely is it to fail? What are the consequences of failure? An ideal output of a risk assessment would: Probability that some Failure or Set of Failures X will result in damage to population, equipment, etc. Y Risk Professor William Ibbs 4
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Risk Management But, assessing risk is only half the problem, we have to do something about it: Components of Risk Management: Identification Analysis Mitigation (this is really the management portion) Lessons Learned Professor William Ibbs 5
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Complementary Approaches Proactive Identifying and mitigating potential (known) hazards, or putting in redundancies to handle unforeseen causes and consequences. Reactive Performing appropriate analysis of incidents after they have occurred and instituting appropriate measures to mitigate future occurrence Interactive Mitigating and managing disasters or failures as they are occurring in order to reduce the consequences, or turn an impending failure into a near miss. Professor William Ibbs 6
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Proactive Utilize forecasting, expert opinion, probabilistic analysis and other tools to predict failures from predictable causes. One primary tool is the use of decision/fault/event trees (to be discussed in next section) Does not account for unknown (something you forgot) and unknown unknowables (something really weird) Professor William Ibbs 7
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Reactive Lessons Learned Analysis Critically evaluate near misses and failures to determine what went wrong and fix it. There are a lot of hidden opportunities for improvement from learning Tools: Root Cause Analysis Initiating, contributing, compounding factors After Action Reviews Look out for the slips, trips, and fall: They are clues to larger, endemic organizational problems. Professor William Ibbs 8
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Plan Act Do Check Reactive RAM: Shewhart PDCA Cycles Professor William Ibbs 9
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Analogous PDCA for Failures: Prevent Analyze Detect Correct Professor William Ibbs 10
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Interactive RAM A method to deal with unpredictable failures. Two failure modes of concern:
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This note was uploaded on 01/06/2012 for the course CIVIL AND 167 taught by Professor Ibbs during the Fall '11 term at Berkeley.

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Ibbs_Lectures 9 _ 10 - CE167: Engineering and Project...

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