hw13_solution - 20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1...

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Unformatted text preview: 20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1 23.33333333 2 16 16.70666667 3 20.8 21.45173333 4 19 19.36 19.41233067 5 21.666667 23.072 24.10549077 6 24.333333 28.6144 31.25880501 7 26.666667 26.52288 28.22735465 8 26.666667 24.50458 25.00649947 9 26.333333 28.10092 29.32076856 10 24.666667 22.42018 21.78663792 11 24.333333 22.88404 22.17101869 12 21 19.77681 18.28685036 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 平均絕對差 平均絕對差 平均絕對差 平均絕對差 (MAD) 4.2593 4.1714 4.4393 平均均方差 平均均方差 平均均方差 平均均方差 (MSE) 22.8272 21.2887 23.2035 平均絕對百分比誤差 平均絕對百分比誤差 平均絕對百分比誤差 平均絕對百分比誤差 (MAPE) % 19.4324 18.5687 19.3194 MAD: ES < 3-MA < EST. MSE: ES < 3-MA < EST MAPE : ES < EST < 3-MA Exponential smoothing is the best prediction method no matter which evaluation measures are adopted. 20.7 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1 19.6 2 12 12.696 3 16.8 17.38816 4 15.33333 16.16 16.3934336 5 19.33333 19....
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hw13_solution - 20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1...

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