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# hw13_solution - 20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8 EST(0.8,0.3...

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20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1 23.33333333 2 16 16.70666667 3 20.8 21.45173333 4 19 19.36 19.41233067 5 21.666667 23.072 24.10549077 6 24.333333 28.6144 31.25880501 7 26.666667 26.52288 28.22735465 8 26.666667 24.50458 25.00649947 9 26.333333 28.10092 29.32076856 10 24.666667 22.42018 21.78663792 11 24.333333 22.88404 22.17101869 12 21 19.77681 18.28685036 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 平均絕對差 (MAD) 4.2593 4.1714 4.4393 平均均方差 (MSE) 22.8272 21.2887 23.2035 平均絕對百分比誤差 (MAPE) % 19.4324 18.5687 19.3194 MAD: ES < 3-MA < EST. MSE: ES < 3-MA < EST MAPE : ES < EST < 3-MA Exponential smoothing is the best prediction method no matter which evaluation measures are adopted.

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20.7 Period 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 1 19.6 2 12 12.696 3 16.8 17.38816 4 15.33333 16.16 16.3934336 5 19.33333 22.432 24.42006426 6 19 18.0864 18.64457497 7 19 16.41728 16.05477912 8 19.33333 23.28346 24.88367296 9 20.66667 21.45669 22.51737022 10 23 22.69134 23.75994082 3-MA ES(0.8) EST(0.8,0.3) 平均絕對差 平均絕對差 (MAD) 4.714286 5.20846 5.820381438 平均均方差 (MSE) 30.68254 36.01767 44.35717875 平均絕對百分比誤差 (MAPE) % 24.99339 27.3793 31.13669638 MAD: 3-MA < ES < EST MSE : 3-MA < ES < EST MAPE : 3-MA < ES < EST 3-MA can be concluded as the best prediction method and EST as the worst no matter which evaluation measures are adopted.
20.13 So the predicted sale of next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is 59.6806, 60.2190, 37.7043, 33.6307 and 38.9697 respectively. 20.27 So the predicted numbers of subscribers of next Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 is about 346, 321, 319 and 371 respectively.

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hw13_solution - 20.4 Period 3-MA ES(0.8 EST(0.8,0.3...

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