Lecture1_082511 - MSC 243 R(3 credits MSC 243 R(3 credits INTRODUCTION TO WEATHER FORECASTING MSC 243 Lecture#1 Instructor Dr Sharan

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Unformatted text preview: MSC 243 R (3 credits) MSC 243 R (3 credits) INTRODUCTION TO WEATHER FORECASTING MSC 243 Lecture #1 Instructor: Dr Sharan Majumdar (smajumdar@rsmas.miami.edu) TA: Matt Archer (matthew.robert.archer@gmail.com) (Tentative) Office Hours 1­2pm Tues + Thurs or by appointment http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/groups/weather/msc243/ Importance of Weather Forecasting Importance of Weather Forecasting • • • • • • • • Aviation (pilot briefing) Other transportation (trucking, shipping) Farming (to plow or not to plow) Safety (heat­stroke or frost­bite) Energy Demand (really hot or cold) Public Works (Road building) Outdoor Events (U.M. sporting events) Public Awareness (neither panic nor zero) Your Value as a Forecaster Your Value as a Forecaster • Your value as a forecaster is to take in the information available in a limited amount of time, and distill it into a brief explanation and forecast for your audience. • Your skill as a forecaster is based on your ability to have a better understanding of the atmosphere than your competitors do. Course Objectives Course Objectives • Become familiar with the tools necessary to make forecasts – Weather Observations – Satellite Imagery – Radar Data – Numerical Model Output • Learn how to apply physical principles of the atmosphere to weather forecasting. Course Objectives Course Objectives • Develop critical thinking and written communication skills to create forecasts and disseminate weather information. • Produce forecasts that are competitive in the National Weather Challenge ( http://www.wxchallenge.com) Course Textbook (recommended Course Textbook (recommended but not mandatory) • “Weather Forecasting Handbook” by Tim Vasquez, 5th Edition • ISBN 0­9706840­2­0 • Paperback • Publisher: www.weathergraphics.com • Available at UM Bookstore (?) • Mainly used for reading assignments Course Schedule Course Schedule 12­13 Lectures 4 “Educational” Labs: Decoding MOS; Surface Data and Features; Satellite Imagery; Hurricanes 4 Homeworks 10 Forecast Labs: prepare NWS­style forecast and discussions for cities around USA http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/groups/weather/msc243/schedule.html • • • • • • • • • • • Syllabus (12­13 Lectures) Syllabus (12­13 Lectures) 1. Model Output Statistics 2. Surface Data and Features 3. Satellite Imagery 4. Radar Imagery 5. Hurricane Forecasting 6. Fronts; Forecasting Techniques 7­8. Upper Air Dynamics 9­10. Soundings and Convection 11. Mesoscale and Severe Weather 12. Tornadoes 13. Winter Weather Grading Summary Grading Summary • • • • • • 4 Homeworks + 4 Labs 10 Forecast Labs WXChallenge Scores WXChallenge Forecast Discussions Mid­Term Examination Final Examination 25% 20% 5% 15% 25% 10% [20% is deducted from late homeworks and labs without a legitimate excuse] WXChallenge Forecast Contest WXChallenge Forecast Contest • WxChallenge is a contest between ~1000 students, faculty, and staff at participating universities across the USA and Canada Starts on September 26th 2011 • • Predict for the next day: – high and low temperature (F) – Precipitation (in) WXChallenge WXChallenge • Make 8 forecasts per city (2 weeks, Mo­Th) • Forecast verification time is 06Z tomorrow to 06Z the following day • 5 cities in Fall Semester: your best 3 will be graded. Extra credit for top finishers in a city. NWS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov NWS: • Responsible for local zone (NWS Miami covers from the upper Keys to Palm Beach County, and west to Naples) • At least twice a day, it uses the National Digital Forecast Database to provide 5­km resolution maps: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/ • From this, forecasts for any location are interpolated: – Point Forecast – Zone Area Forecast (Metro Miami Dade for us) – Graphical Forecasts – Weather Discussion Also marine forecasts, fire weather, aviation etc. NWS Forecast NWS Forecast • Elements of a forecast: – – – – – Type of precipitation (if any) Sky Conditions Temperatures Wind speed and direction Chance of precipitation Today: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 101. Windy, with a north wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Windy, with a west wind between 21 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Friday: A chance of showers, mainly before 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 106. Windy, with a west wind between 15 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Forecast Discussion Forecast Discussion http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS NWS Surface Weather Analysis Upper Air Analysis Forecast Techniques Forecast Techniques • Modified Persistence – What happened yesterday? • Trend – What’s happened the past few days? • Analogous Region – What happened upwind? • Adjusted Computer Guidance – What’s the computer forecast? Computer Guidance Forecast Computer Guidance Forecast • The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and other agencies run computer models to forecast the weather. • NWS uses output from the models. • Statistical guidance is often used as a ‘first guess’ for a weather forecast. • Guidance is decoded to provide the information necessary to make a forecast. Model Output Statistics (MOS) Model Output Statistics (MOS) • All the computer models are never perfect. • They have different systematic errors (“biases”) that depend on the place and time, and these need to be corrected. • MOS = a blend of computer model output with historical forecast data, used to predict meteorological conditions at the surface. Decoding Model Output Statistics Decoding Model Output Statistics KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Station, Model, Date and Time Station, Model, Date and Time KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Decoding MOS – Date and Time Decoding MOS – Date and Time KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 HR X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN UTC time is NOT local time (unless you’re on the prime Meridian) Date and Time Conversions Date and Time Conversions • Meteorological Information is given for UTC time. This is the time zone associated with the prime Meridian • EDT = UTC – 4 Hours 1200Z = 8:00 AM in Miami 1500Z = 10:00 AM CDT in Michigan 0600Z = 11:00 PM PDT in California Date and Time Conversions Date and Time Conversions Decoding MOS – Max and Min Decoding MOS – Max and Min Temperature KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 X/N TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Decoding MOS – 3 hourly Decoding MOS – 3 hourly temperature forecasts KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN OBV 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Decoding MOS – Cloud Cover Decoding MOS – Cloud Cover KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV CLD WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN OBV 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Decoding MOS ­ Cloud Cover Decoding MOS ­ Cloud Cover • CL = Clear, no clouds • FW = Few, between clear and the sky ¼ filled with clouds • SC = Scattered, the sky filled between ¼ and ½ with clouds • BK = Broken, between sky ½ filled with clouds and almost totally cloudy • OV = Overcast, sky filled with clouds Decoding MOS – Winds Decoding MOS – Winds KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN OBV 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN MOS Wind Direction MOS Wind Direction 00 = From North 27 = From West Wind Speed is in KNOTS (kt) 09 = From East 18 = From South Decoding MOS – Chance of Decoding MOS – Chance of measurable precipitation KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN Decoding MOS – Quantitative Decoding MOS – Quantitative Precipitation Forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 P06 20 44 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 T12 66/ 0 T12 CIG 7776677 VIS 7777777 OBV NNNNNNN T06, T12: T06, 9/04/2003 09 12 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 0 1 19/ 0 7 7 N 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 42/ 42/ 76 77 NN 2 0 0 4 7 N 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 89 83 80 79 77 74 74 75 75 OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 08 04 04 04 55 46 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 93/ 0 5444 7777 NNNN 09 12 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 2 5 37/ 0 5 7 N 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 39/ 58/ 65 77 NN 4 0 0 5 7 N / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 77 77 NN probability of thunderstorms / severe t-storms over 6, 12h Decoding ETA MOS – QPF Decoding ETA MOS – QPF amount • • • • • • • 0 = no precipitation 1 = 0.01 to 0.09 inches 2 = 0.10 to 0.24 inches 3 = 0.25 to 0.49 inches 4 = 0.50 to 0.99 inches 5 = 1.00 to 1.99 inches 6 = 2.00 inches or greater Decoding MOS – WXChallenge Decoding MOS – WXChallenge style forecast (but don’t just use MOS!) KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 06 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 79 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 76 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 16 WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 02 P06 20 44 25 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q06 Q12 1 9/04/2003 09 12 77 77 79 80 76 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 30 0 1 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 2 0600 UTC /SEPT 21 00 03 89 83 80 79 74 74 75 OV OV OV 24 24 23 08 04 04 55 66 4 4 High Temperature: 89F Low Temperature: 77F Precipitation: 0.50­0.99 inches? 6 06 09 12 76 77 77 79 75 75 76 OV OV OV 24 21 22 04 06 06 46 44 68 4 2 5 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 4 / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 Decoding MOS – NWS Decoding MOS – NWS Forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 HR 00 X/N 89 TMP 79 85 86 84 81 80 79 TMP 81 DPT 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 DPT 75 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV CLD OV WDR 00 19 17 17 14 13 16 WDR WSP 00 01 04 03 01 01 02 WSP P06 20 44 25 25 P12 45 Q06 0 2 0 Q12 1 T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 21/ T12 66/ 0 9/04/2003 09 12 77 77 79 80 80 76 77 77 OV OV 17 20 05 03 20 30 30 0 1 19/ 0 15 18 84 76 OV 23 09 85 75 OV 22 09 36 36 2 42/ 0 42/ 42/ 0 42/ 0600 UTC /SEPT 6 21 00 03 06 03 89 83 80 79 77 79 74 74 75 75 75 OV OV OV OV OV 24 24 23 24 23 08 04 04 04 04 55 46 46 66 66 4 4 4 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 93/ 0 93/ 09 12 76 76 77 79 75 76 OV OV 21 22 06 06 44 68 68 2 5 37/ 0 15 18 85 75 OV 25 11 88 74 OV 25 11 35 4 39/ 0 58/ 0 58/ / 00 06 91 82 78 74 74 OV BK 26 24 06 05 30 15 54 00 4 22/ 0 66/ 0 Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain 30%. Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%. Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%. ...
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This note was uploaded on 01/08/2012 for the course MSC 243 taught by Professor Majumdar,s during the Fall '08 term at University of Miami.

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