Lecture6_092911

Lecture6_092911 - MIAMI / SEA BREEZES MIAMI UPPER AIR...

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MIAMI / SEA BREEZES MIAMI / SEA BREEZES UPPER AIR DYNAMICS UPPER AIR DYNAMICS MSC 243 Lecture #6, 9/29/11 MSC 243 Lecture #6, 9/29/11
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1053 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 .UPDATE. .. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST OR FROM NRN GA TO NRN LA. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ALONG A CONFLUENT BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE . THE 12Z MFL UPPER SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY MOIST UP TO AROUND 650 MB (~12-13 KFT). ..THEN VERY DRY ABOVE THIS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER-LEVELS THEN WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 500 MB . FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ..ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID/UPPER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. ..A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOCAL WRF INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY SETTING UP MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ..MAINLY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING BASED ON THE EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE. ..THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/ POPS ... MIAMI 89 76 90 77 / 20 10 20 20
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Rain at MIA? 28 14:53(LOCAL) SW 5 10.00 Heavy Rain SCT030 CB SCT130 BKN300 81 78 1011.8 0.46
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 831 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 .UPDATE. .. NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY CHARACTERIZED WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED WITH THE FIRST ONE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SECOND QUICKLY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ..A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN GA TO NRN LA AND A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
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Lecture6_092911 - MIAMI / SEA BREEZES MIAMI UPPER AIR...

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