Lecture15-Climate_dynamics2

Lecture15-Climate_dynamics2 - Can we predict decadal...

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Can we predict decadal fluctuations in the tropical Pacific climate? Amy Clement Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences University of Miami Collaborators: Pedro DiNezio (RSMAS); Clara Deser (NCAR); Robert Burgman (RSMAS); Ben Kirtman (RSMAS); Brian Soden (RSMAS); Gabe Vecchi (NOAA-GFDL); Joel Norris (Scripps) ; Honghai Zhang (RSMAS)
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Drought in southern US is linked to Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Current La Nina pattern in the tropical Pacific
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Ropelewski & Halpern (1987) Seasonal response to La Nina
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Meteorological drought can persist for decades Soil moisture in Texas over the last 60 yrs 20 th century and paleoclimate records provide ample evidence for decades-long, and even ‘Mega’ droughts Current drought
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“La Nina- like SST change” COLD WARM This is not the expected response of the Pacific to GHG forcing (DiNezio et al. 2009)
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We understand seasonal timescale variability Strong Walker Circulation La Nina El Nino Weak Walker Circulation Changes in the subsurface ocean (thermocline) lead surface changes which gives some predictive skill An observational network has been constructed on the basis of this mechanism
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What caused the trend in Pacific SST in the last several decades? How long will this trend continue? What do we need to understand, observe, model? Understanding of the decadal fluctuations is poor
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(20) (9) (9) (3) Figure courtesy of Ben Kirtman (RSMAS) and Doug Smith (UKMO) Coordinated international effort to make decadal or ‘near-term’ climate predictions using initialized models (CMIP5) Climate models are initialized with current state of ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere Surface temperature Initialized models – IPCC AR4 (2012-2016) Global mean temperature anomaly relative to 1971-2000
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Decompose complex models into a set of relatively few processes
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This note was uploaded on 01/08/2012 for the course MPO 551 taught by Professor Zhang,c during the Summer '08 term at University of Miami.

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Lecture15-Climate_dynamics2 - Can we predict decadal...

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