demandEstimation - Airport and Aviation Demand Dr Antonio...

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Dr. Antonio Trani
Air Transportation Systems Laboratory
Virginia Tech
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design
March 21, 2009
Blacksburg, VA
Airport and Aviation Demand
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Presentation
• Aviation demand (historical perspective)
• Forecast methods
• Constrained demand
• Examples
• Conclusions
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Introduction
• Demand forecast is an art and has substantial amount of
uncertainty
• Most airport and aviation forecasts are 40% off in 5-6 years
(deNeufville and Maldonado)
• Demand should be estimated for multiple scenarios
• Estimate demand uncertainty and include alternatives that
will minimize the investment risk for the airport authority
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Why so Much Demand Uncertainty?
• Many exogeneous factors
• Deregulation, low cost carriers
• Terrorism
• Uncertainty in the economy of the country or
regions of the World
• Environmental impacts and constraints
• Multi-airport competition
• Political factors
• Demographic changes and land use
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Impact of Demand Uncertainty
• We need to develop multiple scenarios
• Plan the development of the airport so that
demand changes can be accomodated with
minimum risk
• Decision analysis is a tool used to examine
multiple demand forecast solution
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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• Demand can be expressed as the number of passengers
that travel or the number of flights in a given unit of time
• Demand is sensitive to airline fares and level of service
attributes
• The number of operations depends on how operators
shoose to the serve the existing demand (supply side)
which leads to canges in operator price, schedules,
amenities, etc.
• Reasons for travel
• Business
• Pleasure (vacation)
• A passenger reacts differently if he/she pays for the trips
than if someone else pays
The Basic Idea
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Observations
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Measures of Demand, Supply and
Efficiency
Demand
• Revenue Passenger Enplanements (RPE) = The total number of
passengers boarding an aircraft
• Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) = revenue passenger enplanements
multiplied by the distance flown by the passenger
Capacity
• Flights Departures (FD) offered = number of departures (flights)
• Available Seat Miles (ASM) = number of seats offered by airlines multiplied
by the miles flown by each flight
Productivity
• Load factor = ratio of RPM and ASM
CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)

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Source of data: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
The number of passengers enplaned tripled between 1976 and 2006
Historical Aviation Demand in the U.S.

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Growth of Passenger Enplanements
(1976 to 2006)
Source of data: FAA Terminal Area Forecast
Virginia Tech Air Transportation Lab

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