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demandEstimation - Airport and Aviation Demand Dr Antonio...

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1 Dr. Antonio Trani Air Transportation Systems Laboratory Virginia Tech CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design March 21, 2009 Blacksburg, VA Airport and Aviation Demand CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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2 Presentation Aviation demand (historical perspective) Forecast methods Constrained demand Examples Conclusions CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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3 Introduction Demand forecast is an art and has substantial amount of uncertainty Most airport and aviation forecasts are 40% off in 5-6 years (deNeufville and Maldonado) Demand should be estimated for multiple scenarios Estimate demand uncertainty and include alternatives that will minimize the investment risk for the airport authority CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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4 Why so Much Demand Uncertainty? Many exogeneous factors Deregulation, low cost carriers • Terrorism Uncertainty in the economy of the country or regions of the World Environmental impacts and constraints Multi-airport competition Political factors Demographic changes and land use CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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5 Impact of Demand Uncertainty We need to develop multiple scenarios Plan the development of the airport so that demand changes can be accomodated with minimum risk Decision analysis is a tool used to examine multiple demand forecast solution CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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6 Demand can be expressed as the number of passengers that travel or the number of flights in a given unit of time • Demand is sensitive to airline fares and level of service attributes • The number of operations depends on how operators shoose to the serve the existing demand (supply side) which leads to canges in operator price, schedules, amenities, etc. Reasons for travel • Business • Pleasure (vacation) A passenger reacts differently if he/she pays for the trips than if someone else pays The Basic Idea CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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7 Observations CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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8 Measures of Demand, Supply and Efficiency Demand Revenue Passenger Enplanements (RPE) = The total number of passengers boarding an aircraft Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) = revenue passenger enplanements multiplied by the distance flown by the passenger Capacity Flights Departures (FD) offered = number of departures (flights) Available Seat Miles (ASM) = number of seats offered by airlines multiplied by the miles flown by each flight Productivity Load factor = ratio of RPM and ASM CEE 4674 – Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani)
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9 Source of data: Bureau of Transportation Statistics The number of passengers enplaned tripled between 1976 and 2006 Historical Aviation Demand in the U.S.
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10 Growth of Passenger Enplanements (1976 to 2006) Source of data: FAA Terminal Area Forecast Virginia Tech Air Transportation Lab
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