demandEstimation

demandEstimation - 1 Dr. Antonio Trani Air Transportation...

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Unformatted text preview: 1 Dr. Antonio Trani Air Transportation Systems Laboratory Virginia Tech CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design March 21, 2009 Blacksburg, VA Airport and Aviation Demand CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 2 Presentation Aviation demand (historical perspective) Forecast methods Constrained demand Examples Conclusions CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 3 Introduction Demand forecast is an art and has substantial amount of uncertainty Most airport and aviation forecasts are 40% off in 5-6 years (deNeufville and Maldonado) Demand should be estimated for multiple scenarios Estimate demand uncertainty and include alternatives that will minimize the investment risk for the airport authority CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 3 Introduction Demand forecast is an art and has substantial amount of uncertainty Most airport and aviation forecasts are 40% off in 5-6 years (deNeufville and Maldonado) Demand should be estimated for multiple scenarios Estimate demand uncertainty and include alternatives that will minimize the investment risk for the airport authority CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 4 Why so Much Demand Uncertainty? Many exogeneous factors Deregulation, low cost carriers Terrorism Uncertainty in the economy of the country or regions of the World Environmental impacts and constraints Multi-airport competition Political factors Demographic changes and land use CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 5 Impact of Demand Uncertainty We need to develop multiple scenarios Plan the development of the airport so that demand changes can be accomodated with minimum risk Decision analysis is a tool used to examine multiple demand forecast solution CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 6 Demand can be expressed as the number of passengers that travel or the number of flights in a given unit of time Demand is sensitive to airline fares and level of service attributes The number of operations depends on how operators shoose to the serve the existing demand (supply side) which leads to canges in operator price, schedules, amenities, etc. Reasons for travel Business Pleasure (vacation) A passenger reacts differently if he/she pays for the trips than if someone else pays The Basic Idea CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 7 Observations CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design (copyright A. Trani) 8 8 Measures of Demand, Supply and Efficiency Demand Revenue Passenger Enplanements (RPE) = The total number of passengers boarding an aircraft Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) = revenue passenger enplanements multiplied by the distance fown by the passenger Capacity Flights Departures (FD) oered = number o departures (fights) Available Seat Miles (ASM) = number o seats oered by airlines multiplied...
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This note was uploaded on 01/07/2012 for the course CEE 4674 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '11 term at Virginia Tech.

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demandEstimation - 1 Dr. Antonio Trani Air Transportation...

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