Chapter 9-Spreadsheet Model

Chapter 9-Spreadsheet Model - 09 Chapter model Chapter 9...

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09 Chapter model 12/12/08 Chapter 9. Stocks and Their Valuation THE DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND MODEL (Section 9-4) The basic dividend valuation equation is: + + . . . . EXAMPLE $1.15 g 8.3% 13.7% = = $1.25 0.054 $23.06 STOCK PRICE SENSITIVITY Resulting % Change Last Price $23.06 -30% $0.81 $16.14 -15% $0.98 $19.60 0% $1.15 $23.06 15% $1.32 $26.52 30% $1.50 $29.98 % Change $23.06 -30% 9.38% $115.32 -15% 11.39% $40.31 0% 13.40% $24.42 15% 15.41% $17.52 30% 17.42% $13.66 % Change g $23.06 -30% 5.60% $14.99 -15% 6.80% $17.80 0% 8.00% $21.79 15% 9.20% $27.91 30% 10.40% $38.47 + g EXAMPLE $23.06 $1.245 g 8.3% 13.70% Div Yield = 5.40% Capital Gains Yield = 8.30% EXTENSION What is the expected price of this stock in 5 years? N = 5 Using the growth rate we find that: $34.36 Figure 9-4. Nonconstant Growth Stocks (Section 9-6) EXAMPLE $1.15 13.4% 30% Short-run g; for Years 1-3 only. 8% Long-run g; for Year 4 and al fol owing years. <- - - - - 30% - - - - - > 8% Year 0 1 2 3 4 Dividend $1.15 1.495 1.9435 2.5266 2.7287 PV of dividends $1.32 1.51 1.73 2.7287 $4.56 50.5310 = Terminal value = 34.65 0.054 $39.21 EXAMPLE / $10.00 / 10.30% $97.09 EXAMPLE N 50 I/YR 10% PMT $10 FV = Par value $100 Price $100.00 What would its value be if the required return declined to 8%? N 50 I 8% PMT $10 Face value $100 Price $124.47 Had this been a perpetual preferred, the new stock price would have been: Price $125.00 This model is similar to the bond valuation models developed in Chapter 7 in that we employ discounted cash flow analysis to find the value of a firm's stock. COMMON STOCK VALUATION (Section 9-4) The value of any financial asset is equal to the present value of future cash flows provided by the asset. Stocks can be evaluated in two ways: (1) by finding the present value of the expected future dividends, or (2) by finding the present value of the firm's expected future free cash flows, subtracting the value of the debt and preferred stock to find the total value of the common equity, and then dividing that total value by the number of shares outstanding to find the value per share. Both approaches are examined in this spreadsheet. When an investor buys a share of stock, he/she typical y expects to receive cash in the form of dividends and then, eventual y, to sel the stock and to receive cash from the sale. Moreover, the price any investor receives is dependent upon the dividends the next investor expects to earn, and so on for dif erent generations of investors. P 0 = D 1 D 2 D n ( 1 + r s ) ( 1 + r s ) 2 ( 1 + r s ) n The dividend stream theoretical y extends on out forever, i.e., n = infinity. It would not be feasible to deal with an infinite stream of dividends, but if dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate, we can use the constant growth equation as developed in the text to find the value. CONSTANT GROWTH STOCKS (Section 9-5)
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Chapter 9-Spreadsheet Model - 09 Chapter model Chapter 9...

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