MSci_609_Introduction_to_probability__2_

MSci_609_Introduction_to_probability__2_ - 1/8/2011 1...

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1/8/2011 1 INTRODUCTION: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS & PROBABILITY CONCEPTS INSTRUCTOR: AMER OBEIDI 1 2
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1/8/2011 2 Example: Pick “heads” or “tails ” 3 Pick heads or tails. Flip a fair coin. Does the outcome match your choice? Did you know before flipping the coin whether or not it would match? Statisticians don’t think of randomness as the annoying tendency of things to be unpredictable or haphazard. Statisticians use randomness as a tool. But, truly random values are surprisingly hard to get… It’s surprisingly difficult to generate random values even when they’re equally likely. 4 Computers have become a popular way to generate random numbers. Even though they often do much better than humans, computers can’t generate truly random numbers either. Since computers follow programs, the “random” numbers we get from computers are really pseudorandom we get from computers are really . Fortunately, pseudorandom values are good enough for most purposes.
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1/8/2011 3 1. Experiment Process of obtaining an observation, outcome or simple event 5 2. Sample point Most basic outcome of an experiment 3. Sample space ( S ) Collection of all possible outcomes Experiment – tossing 2 coin Experiment tossing 2 coins A Sample Point – HT Sample Space – S: {HH, HT, TH, TT} Sample point probability – relative frequency of the occurrence of the sample point 6
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1/8/2011 4 1. Mutually Exclusive 2 outcomes can not Experiment: Observe Gende 7 occur at the same time Male & Female in same person 2. Collectively Exhaustive One outcome in sample space must Gender sample space must occur. Male or Female Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces. 8 HH TH HT Sample Space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Outcome Compound Event: At least one Tail S TT
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1/8/2011 5 A probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event in the future will happen It 9 . It can only assume a value between 0 and 1. A value near zero means the event is not likely to happen. A value near one means it is likely.
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This note was uploaded on 01/12/2012 for the course MSCI 609 taught by Professor Almehdawe,eman during the Fall '10 term at Waterloo.

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MSci_609_Introduction_to_probability__2_ - 1/8/2011 1...

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