PPE 11:7

# PPE 11:7 - Correlation and contingency Correlation =...

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Correlation and contingency - Correlation = knowing A helps you guess B o Gender and height - Correlation does not imply causation o Parents – if you are like one of your parents (eye color), then you might think that your father caused your blue eyes, but it was actually the gene for blue eeyes that did it - Sometimes correlation does imply causation o Smokers were more like to get lung cancer o Amount of studying and the grades you get – there is a correlation - contingency – if you manipulate A and B and observe its affect on another variable o This is how we test for causation, if modifying one modifies the other o Astronomy – you can’t find out what happens if you blow up a star Contingency implies correlation, if A implies B if B implies A Correlated, if A implies B, then B implies A A perfect relationship has a correlation of 1 - height in inches and height in feet = 1 (since units don’t matter) - height in inches, and distance from the ceiling in inches = -1 Illusory correlation - when people have theories about what the correlations ought to be, those theories impose themselves on the actual events - make correlations when they are not there, and misperceive ones that are there

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PPE 11:7 - Correlation and contingency Correlation =...

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