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proj3 - STA 4322/5328 Spring 2010 Project 3 Due Odds Ratios...

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STA 4322/5328 – Spring 2010 – Project 3 – Due 3/30/10 Odds Ratios John Snow conducted a census of London residents in the 1850s during a cholera epidemic to try and determine how the epidemic was spread (airborne, waterborne, etc). He obtained the following contingency table, identifying residents by water provider (Southwark & Vauxhall or Lambeth) for this POPULATION : Company\Cholera death Yes No Total Southwark & Vauxhall (SV) 3706 263919 267625 Lambeth (L) 411 171117 171528 Total 4117 435036 439153 Let p S = Pr{Cholera Death | SV Customer} and p L = Pr{Cholera Death | L Customer} The ODDS of a customer suffering a Cholera Death is the probability he/she dies of cholera divided by the probability he/she does not (equivalently the ratio of deaths to survivors). Let odds S = odds{Cholera Death | SV}=p s /(1-p s ) and odds L = odds{Cholera Death | L }=p L /(1-p L ) Consider taking independent random samples of n S =n L =5000 from each of these companies and obtaining maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters: {p
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