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lec0407 - IEOR 4106 Introduction to Operations Research...

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IEOR 4106: Introduction to Operations Research: Stochastic Models Spring 2011, Professor Whitt, Renewal Theory, Chapter 7, Thursday, April 7 The Inspection Paradox, the Excess and the Age Taking the M60 bus to Laguardia Airport. Suppose that you go out to the bus stop on Broadway at the campus gate on 116 th Street in order to take the bus to Laguardia Airport. Suppose that you go at a random time, without knowing anything about the specific bus schedule. Suppose that you know that, for the general time of day you are going, that the average time between successive M60 buses is 20 minutes. Thus you deduce that your waiting time, on average, should be 20 / 2 = 10 minutes. However, on the five times you went, your average wait was 18 minutes. Is this yet another example illustrating that you have incredibly bad luck, much worse than everyone else? A survey of tourists in Morocco. Homework Exercise 7.51 These examples illustrate the inspection paradox , which is presented in Section 7.7 of the book. Homework exercise 51 is related to this. (That is the study of tourism in Morocco.)
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