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IEOR 4106: Introduction to Operations Research: Stochastic Models
Spring 2011, Professor Whitt,
Renewal Theory, Chapter 7, Thursday, April 7
The Inspection Paradox, the Excess and the Age
Taking the M60 bus to Laguardia Airport.
Suppose that you go out to the bus
stop on Broadway at the campus gate on 116
th
Street in order to take the bus to Laguardia
Airport. Suppose that you go at a random time, without knowing anything about the speciﬁc
bus schedule. Suppose that you know that, for the general time of day you are going, that the
average time between successive M60 buses is 20 minutes. Thus you deduce that your waiting
time, on average, should be 20
/
2 = 10 minutes. However, on the ﬁve times you went, your
average wait was 18 minutes. Is this yet another example illustrating that you have incredibly
bad luck, much worse than everyone else?
A survey of tourists in Morocco.
Homework Exercise 7.51
These examples illustrate
the inspection paradox
, which is presented in Section 7.7 of
the book. Homework exercise 51 is related to this. (That is the study of tourism in Morocco.)
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This note was uploaded on 01/16/2012 for the course IEOR 4106 taught by Professor Whitward during the Spring '11 term at Columbia College.
 Spring '11
 WhitWard
 Operations Research

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