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PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY = chance; calculated risk; estimated outcome.
P = probability that an event will happen
Q = probability that the event will NOT happen
P + Q = 1
P = 1 – Q
Q = 1 – P
LAWS:
1. The probability of a single event occurring that is one of a set of mutually
exclusive events is the
SUM
of the probabilities of the single events.
Mutually Exclusive = occurrence of one event excludes the possibility of the
other event.
CARDS: chance of drawing the ace of spades = 1/52
Chance of drawing an ace = 4/52 = 1/13
Chance of drawing a spade = 13/52 = 1/4
2. The probability of TWO OR MORE
independent
events occurring
TOGETHER is the
PRODUCT( multiplication)
of each separate probability.
Independent = the occurrence of one event has NO influence on the
occurrence of the other event(s).
Follows the mathematical formula for expanding the binomial (a+b)
n
.
a = probability of one event; b = probability of 2
nd
event; n = # of
replications
(a+b)
2
= a
2
+ 2ab + b
2
(a+b)
3
= a
3
+ 3a
2
b + 3ab
2
+ b
3
(a+b)
4
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 Fall '11
 DonHenneke

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