319 PROBABILITY

319 PROBABILITY - PROBABILITY PROBABILITY = chance;...

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PROBABILITY PROBABILITY = chance; calculated risk; estimated outcome. P = probability that an event will happen Q = probability that the event will NOT happen P + Q = 1 P = 1 – Q Q = 1 – P LAWS: 1. The probability of a single event occurring that is one of a set of mutually exclusive events is the SUM of the probabilities of the single events. Mutually Exclusive = occurrence of one event excludes the possibility of the other event. CARDS: chance of drawing the ace of spades = 1/52 Chance of drawing an ace = 4/52 = 1/13 Chance of drawing a spade = 13/52 = 1/4 2. The probability of TWO OR MORE independent events occurring TOGETHER is the PRODUCT( multiplication) of each separate probability. Independent = the occurrence of one event has NO influence on the occurrence of the other event(s). Follows the mathematical formula for expanding the binomial (a+b) n . a = probability of one event; b = probability of 2 nd event; n = # of replications (a+b) 2 = a 2 + 2ab + b 2 (a+b) 3 = a 3 + 3a 2 b + 3ab 2 + b 3 (a+b) 4
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319 PROBABILITY - PROBABILITY PROBABILITY = chance;...

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