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Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change -...

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Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change David Rutledge, Caltech
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2 The UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Released 4th Assessment Report in 2007 For climate, the IPCC makes subjective estimates of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of the CO2 level 2/3 chance that the sensitivity is between 2.0 and 4.5°C 9/10 chance that the sensitivity is above 1.5°C For oil, gas, and coal production, the IPCC works with scenarios — “… 40 SRES [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties…”
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3 Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios Gb = billions of barrels, historical production from the BP Statistical Review Range for production from 2010 to 2100 is 1446Gb to 8278Gb — still growing in 13 scenarios in 2100
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4 Goal is to Reduce these Uncertainties by Replacing Subjective Estimates and Scenarios with Statistics Oil, gas, and coal US oil — Hubbert’s peak British coal — The Coal Question World coal World oil and gas How much — Climate change CO2 concentrations Temperature How long — Renewables Electricity trends Transportation energy trends Caltech energy sources
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5
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Characterizing Uncertainty Residuals are the differences between data and models The “best” model is used for projections Uncertainty refers to the inconsistency in a group of projections A range giving the upper and lower values is one measure of uncertainty — a one-sided example would be designing for the 100-year flood When residuals can be decorrelated, we can create bootstrap replications , which are effectively alternative histories with the same statistical properties as the actual history Replications allow us to calculate confidence intervals statements of the form “The 90% confidence interval is 1.9°C to 2.4°C” means that there is a 90% chance that the interval includes the actual temperature Limitations in confidence intervals (uncertainty index might be a better term) — they depend on the form of the models, some uncertainties are left out, and the models can break down Validation (testing the model) on historical data and with partial data 6
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7 King Hubbert Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston, Texas In 1956, he wrote a paper suggesting the possibility of a peak in US oil production in 1970
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US Crude-Oil Production Gb = billions of barrels Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 8
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9 Cumulative Production for US Crude Oil Top of the scale for the normal gives a projection for the long-term production — total production, past and future
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10 Probit Transform for US Crude Oil Cumulative production is linearized by the probit transform (inverse of the standard cumulative normal) The plot is for probit( q / Q ), where q is cumulative production, and Q is the proposed long-term production Maximize r 2 (correlation coefficient squared) — gives 0.99991 A one-parameter fit, 1 second in Excel
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Residuals for US Crude Oil
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