Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change -...

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Unformatted text preview: Hubberts Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change David Rutledge, Caltech 2 The UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Released 4th Assessment Report in 2007 For climate, the IPCC makes subjective estimates of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of the CO2 level 2/3 chance that the sensitivity is between 2.0 and 4.5C 9/10 chance that the sensitivity is above 1.5C For oil, gas, and coal production, the IPCC works with scenarios 40 SRES [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties 3 Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios Gb = billions of barrels, historical production from the BP Statistical Review Range for production from 2010 to 2100 is 1446Gb to 8278Gb still growing in 13 scenarios in 2100 4 Goal is to Reduce these Uncertainties by Replacing Subjective Estimates and Scenarios with Statistics Oil, gas, and coal US oil Hubberts peak British coal The Coal Question World coal World oil and gas How much Climate change CO2 concentrations Temperature How long Renewables Electricity trends Transportation energy trends Caltech energy sources 5 Characterizing Uncertainty Residuals are the differences between data and models The best model is used for projections Uncertainty refers to the inconsistency in a group of projections A range giving the upper and lower values is one measure of uncertainty a one-sided example would be designing for the 100-year flood When residuals can be decorrelated, we can create bootstrap replications , which are effectively alternative histories with the same statistical properties as the actual history Replications allow us to calculate confidence intervals statements of the form The 90% confidence interval is 1.9C to 2.4C means that there is a 90% chance that the interval includes the actual temperature Limitations in confidence intervals (uncertainty index might be a better term) they depend on the form of the models, some uncertainties are left out, and the models can break down Validation (testing the model) on historical data and with partial data 6 7 King Hubbert Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston, Texas In 1956, he wrote a paper suggesting the possibility of a peak in US oil production in 1970 US Crude-Oil Production Gb = billions of barrels Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 8 9 Cumulative Production for US Crude Oil Top of the scale for the normal gives a projection for the long-term production total production, past and future 10 Probit Transform for US Crude Oil Cumulative production is linearized by the probit transform (inverse of the standard cumulative normal) The plot is for probit( q / Q ), where q is cumulative production, and Q is the proposed long-term production Maximize r 2 (correlation coefficient squared) gives 0.99991 Residuals for US Crude Oil...
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This note was uploaded on 01/16/2012 for the course ENVIRON 404 taught by Professor Rasmussen during the Fall '11 term at University of Michigan.

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Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change -...

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