Kaya+Pielke - well developed countries. . Again putting the...

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The Kaya Identity as slightly recast by Roger Pielke Jr. Carbon Emissions = Population x Per Capita GDP x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity or: C = P x GDP/P x EI x CI Since Per Capita GDP is just GDP divided by population, population drops out of the equation. Energy intensity is total energy consumption per GDP, and carbon intensity is carbon emissions per total energy consumption. Energy Intensity EI = total energy consumption / GDP = TE /GDP Carbon Intensity CI = carbon emissions / total energy consumption = C/TE Technology effects can be estimated by approximating them as the carbon intensity of the whole economy. EI x CI = TE /GDP x C/ TE = C / GDP = technology effects In words, the higher the technology input, the lower the carbon produced per GDP, but note that both carbon emissions and GDP are large for rich countries even if the ratio is lower for them than for less
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Unformatted text preview: well developed countries. . Again putting the overall statements into words, there are only four levers that control decarbonization. 1. Population could be reduced 2. GDP could reduced 3. Efficiency could be increased 4. Less carbon intensive energy sources could be adopted It is the "iron rule" of politics, that no policy will be adopted that intends to lower GDP. This certainly won't happen in the most energy intensive high GDP countries, and it shouldn't happen in the lowest GDP countries. Thus, all of the arguments regarding cap and trade, offsets, energy innovation, carbon footprints, etc. eventually converge at the same place. GDP growth must be maintained, and decarbonization can only be achieved by efficiency improvements, and innovation regarding the sources of energy. Abstracted from "The Climate Fix" by Roger Pielke Jr. 2010....
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