IrrationalBeliefPersistence-2

IrrationalBeliefPersistence-2 - Irrational Belief...

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Irrational Belief Persistence Justin Landy Judgments and Decisions October 12, 2011
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The Question of “Rationality” There ARE beliefs that we would all agree are irrational. Irrational persistence of belief. We often do not adjust our beliefs in normatively correct ways in response to new information.
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Search and Inference The Search-Inference Framework: Where do we misuse information? Search: - Order effects - Selective Exposure Inference: - Biased Assimilation - Belief Overkill
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Normative Rules for Using New Information The Order Principle
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Primacy Effects How much would you like this person? (Asch, 1946) Intelligent, industrious, impulsive, critical, stubborn, envious Envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive, industrious, intelligent Is this irrational?
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Primacy Effects Strong primacy effect in estimates of probability that experimenter was drawing from first urn.
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A Special Case of Primacy Effects? “Total discrediting” (Anderson, Lepper, & Ross, 1980): Participants given information, then told it was completely fabricated Yet, information still affects subsequent beliefs BUT, also sometimes occurs when participants are warned ahead of time that information is fabricated (Wegner, Coulton, & Wenzlaff, 1985)
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Myside Bias in Search: Selective Exposure
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Selective Exposure in the Lab During 1964 presidential election, participants read sample of brochures for each candidate, and can order copies of the brochures for free (Lowin, 1967) When arguments were strong and hard to refute, ordered more brochures supporting own candidate When arguments were weak and easy to refute, ordered more brochures supporting other candidate
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Normative Rules for Using New Information The Order Principle The Neutral-Evidence Principle
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Interpreting Neutral Evidence Which bingo basket? (Pitz, 1969): Consecutive balls of different colors shouldn't change strength of beliefs.
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A More Real- World Example Beliefs about the deterrence effects of the Kroner and Phillips (1977) compared murder rates for the year before and the year after adoption of capital punishment in 14 states. In 11 of the 14 states, murder rates were lower after adoption of the death penalty. This research supports the deterrent effect of the death penalty. Palmer and Crandall (1977) compared murder rates
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IrrationalBeliefPersistence-2 - Irrational Belief...

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