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linearmodels - Judgments and Decisions Psych 253...

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Judgments and Decisions Psych 253 Individual, Group, and Computer Strengths and Weaknesses
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Individual Weaknesses Limited perception : Accept the frame and context that are given Limited attention : Insensitivity to relevant information and sensitivity to irrelevant information (order, phrasing, surrounding situation) Limited memory : Short-term limit of 7, ± 2 Limited reasoning : People are inconsistent and invalid information processors.
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Individual Strengths Computer builders : We build the machines, not vice versa. Theorists : We develop normative theories for decision-making. Pattern recognizers : We can see and extract patterns (faces, chess experts, nurses, pilots, art experts).
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“It is a simple house fire in a one-story house in a residential neighborhood. The fire is in the back, in the kitchen area. The lieutenant leads his hose crew into the building, to the back, to spray water on the fire, but the fire just roars back at them. ‘Odd,’ he thinks. The water should have more of an impact. They try dousing it again and get the same results. They retreat a few steps to regroup. Then the lieutenant starts to feel as if something is not right. He doesn’t have any clues; he just doesn’t feel right about being in that house, so he orders his men out of the building—a perfectly standard building with nothing out of the ordinary. As soon as his men leave the building, the floor where they had been standing collapses. Had they still been inside, they would have plunged into the fire below.” Source: Klein, Gary (1998), Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Boston: MIT Press. Let’s consider a scene from Klein’s Sources of Power.
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Many reasons, but one important point to notice: There were no “gold standards” in his real-world scenarios. Perhaps, if statistical models had been developed, the models would have outperformed the experts. Many people claim to be experts. How do we know whether an "expert" is really an expert? Experts should be identified by comparing their predictions to a gold standard, such as survival (with respect to surgeons) and safety (with respect to air traffic controllers). But often there is no gold standard (i.e., wine connoisseurs, professors grading essays, eye witnesses giving testimonial accounts, jurors determining guilt or innocence). Why were Klein’s experts so good?
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When gold standards are not available, experts should AT LEAST show: 1. Discrimination in judgments between similar, though not identical, stimuli 2. Consistency in judgments of the same stimuli on repeated occasions
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In a study on good judgment, Swedish general practitioners judged the probability of heart failure for 45 cases based on real patients. Five were repeated (though the physicians were not told that). They are called A, B, C, D, and E. Assessments were made on a scale from “Totally Unlikely” to “Certain.” Samples from three practitioners’ judgments are shown in the next slides. Source: Skånér, Y., Strender, L. E., & Bring, J. (1998), “How do GPs use clinical information in their judgements of
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linearmodels - Judgments and Decisions Psych 253...

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