Chapter 01 test slides

Chapter 01 test slides - 20 Hindsight Bias is the...

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Unformatted text preview: 20 Hindsight Bias is the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon. In hindsight bias, when we look back on events, we falsely surmise that we knew it all along. After learning the outcome of an event, many people believe they could have predicted that very outcome . We only knew the dot.com stocks would plummet after they actually did plummet. Finding out that something happened makes it seem inevitable. Errors of Common Sense: Hindsight Bias 21 Errors of Common Sense: Overconfidence Our intuitive assessment of our own knowledge is often more confident than correct. Often times, we think we know more than we actually know . Anagram BARGE GRABE ENTRY ETYRN WATER WREAT How long do you think you would take to unscramble these letters? Most people said it would take about 10 seconds, yet on average, they took about 3 minutes (Goranson, 1978). Errors of Common Sense: Overconfidence Comes from our tendency to seek information that confirms our ideas. We are reluctant to consider contrary instances, so we are slow to change our wrong ideas. We think we know more than we actually do. We overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge. 22 26 Scientific Method Psychologists, like all scientists, use the scientific method to construct theories that organize, summarize, and simplify observations. The scientific method uses certain steps or procedures to gain accurate information: identifying the problem, collecting data, analyzing the data, and drawing conclusions. 27 What is a theory? A theory is a plausible explanation of behavior. It has a set of principles that organizes and predicts behavior. A theory is a orderly set of statements that describes, explains, and predicts behavior or events. Example of a theory : Low self-esteem contributes to depression. Theory 28 What is a hypothesis? A hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject, or revise the theory. Hypotheses give direction to research. They are assumptions that will be tested when conducting the research....
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Chapter 01 test slides - 20 Hindsight Bias is the...

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