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Unformatted text preview: 8/16/11 PADP 8670 POLICY ANALYSIS I Introduc)on Angela Fer7g, Ph.D. Gree)ngs Pair up Talk for 5 minutes Introduce your partner 1 8/16/11 3 hours! How will we survive? Snacks sign up sheet Only 1-1.5 hour of lecture This means you have to read before class. Rest of the class will be more ac)ve: Prac)ce problems Extemporaneous policy analyses Presenta)ons Etc. Course Mechanics Required Text: Weimer & Vining Grading: 2 exams: midterm and final (25% each) weekly homework sets (10%) work in groups, turn in separate work 2 policy papers (20% each) Group memo (3 pages) Individual paper 3 pages for masters students 15 pages for PhD students Office hours: Fri 10-noon, or by appt Website: h_p://hogwarts.spia.uga.edu/~afer)g/policy1.html 2 8/16/11 Today's plan What is policy analysis? What is economics? Elements of a policy analysis Examples Group Exercise Ethical considera)ons Exercise What is policy analysis? Client-oriented advice relevant to public decisions Systema7c comparison and evalua7on of alterna)ves available to public actors for solving social problems Analysis determining which of various alterna)ve policies will most achieve a given set of goals Not program evalua)on: policy analysis predicts impacts ex ante, where program evalua)on evaluates performance ex post (although there can be some overlap, e.g. an exis)ng program is up for a reauthoriza)on vote) 3 8/16/11 What is economics? Economics is the study of how people allocate scarce resources among alterna)ve uses Scarce resources = income, )me, produc)ve resources like labor and capital Involves trade-offs Microeconomics is the study of households and firms (or industries) and how they interact in markets Macro is the study of economy-wide phenomena Why study economics? Economics is a fundamental part of our lives because we make economic decisions all of the )me: Which goods to buy, whether and where to go to college, which job to take, how to get to work, where to live, where to send the kids to school, etc. Economics is a framework for understanding the decisions that people make: It forces you to appeal to a systema)c set of principles in making statements or drawing conclusions about how people behave It fosters a more scien)fic way of thinking about how the world works which can help in making predic)ons 4 8/16/11 How is economics relevant to public policy? Public policies are oien aimed at affec)ng the decisions of consumers or firms (taxa)on, unemployment benefits, food stamps, price regula)on, pollu)on emissions standards, etc.). In order to design effec7ve policies, the analyst needs to know how consumers and firms will respond to the various op)ons Also, public managers must oien make economic decisions (because they have scarce resources at their disposal), so economics can provide a guiding framework for their decisions Elements of a policy analysis Problem Analysis 1. Problem Statement 2. Evalua)on Criteria Solu)on Analysis 3. Descrip)on of policy op)ons (may just be status quo or proposed policy) 4. Evalua)on of op)ons 5. Recommenda)ons 5 8/16/11 Problem Statement What are the symptoms of the problem that has brought the client to you? Can we explain how the problem happened with our (economic) theories? Is there a market failure that policy can address? Are their equity or distribu)onal concerns? E.g. Oregon Gas Price report from GAO Assemble some evidence How big/widespread/costly is the problem? Does the problem affect certain groups? Most common evalua)on criteria Efficiency (main concern of economists) Costs Are goods/services being allocated in the best possible way? total costs, costs compared to benefits, or cost- effec)veness Poli)cal feasibility Ethical concerns Distribu)onal/equity concerns e.g. Snack Tax Analysis by USDA 6 8/16/11 Policy Op)ons May be status quo or one proposed policy But if need policy alterna)ves for comparison: Brainstorm using causal pathways What are the causes of this problem? Can we intervene in one or more of the causal pathways? Scans of the news, poli)cians' proposals, advocacy publica)ons, and academic literature What have others proposed? What are other countries/states doing? Brainstorm using standard economic policies (taxes, regula)on, public provision, etc) e.g. Credit card fee analysis by GAO Evalua)on of op)ons Qualita)ve list of pros and cons Cost-benefit analysis (quan)ta)ve, dollars) Cost-effec)veness achieving goals efficiently (lowest cost) Forecas)ng Risk analysis Sensi)vity analysis e.g. Social Security means-tes)ng analysis 7 8/16/11 Making recommenda)ons Are there thresholds of acceptability for each goal? Recommenda)on should be based on evalua)on of op)ons Discuss advantages and disadvantages of recommenda)on Provide clear set of instruc)ons for ac)on Example If/when flu pandemic hits, the government must decide who to administer vaccina)ons to first; groups to consider for immuniza)on 65+, high-risk 65+, low risk 20-64, high risk 20-64, low risk 0-19, high risk 0-19, low risk 8 8/16/11 Problem Statement Many people could die in the US if there is a flu pandemic Maximum
Total deaths ('000) 95th percen7le Mean
5th percentile Minimum National, 1-year gross attack rate Evalua)on Criteria Minimize morbidity and mortality Minimize costs Total costs = costs to immunize costs of illness (medical and losses due to produc)vity) averted 9 8/16/11 Policy op)on Priori)ze groups by evalua)on criteria and provide them with vaccina)ons first Evalua)on Groups Under Considera7on: 65+, high risk; 65+, low risk; 20-64, high risk; 20-64 low risk; 0-19, high risk; 0-19, low risk Criteria for Prioritization
Priority 1(top) 2 3 4 5 6 Risk of Death $ to vaccinate HR 65+ yrs LR 65+ yrs HR 0-19 yrs HR 20-64 yrs LR 20-64 yrs LR 0-19 yrs HR 20-64 yrs HR 0-19 yrs LR 20-64 yrs LR 0-19 yrs HR 65+ yrs LR 65+ yrs 10 8/16/11 Recommenda)on If recommend HR 65+, advantage is saving more lives, but disadvantage is cost savings is low because not working popula)on If recommend HR 20-64, advantage is high costs savings, but disadvantage is number of people saved is not as high as it could be Kingdon Model 3 things required for policy making to occur in a poli)cal system Problem Stream some problems come to the fore for various reasons Indicators: new health data Focusing events: some crisis Feedback from program already in place Poli)cs Stream par)cipants in the poli)cal process care about it (interest groups, poli)cians, researchers) Policy Stream Proposals are available that could become policy (technically feasible, consistent with exis)ng values, public acceptability, poli)cal recep)vity) 11 8/16/11 Kingdon Model Problem Stream Poli)cs Stream Policy Stream Window of opportunity Kingdon Model and Policy Analysis Need to convince many that there is a big problem Problem Stream Poli)cs Stream Need to target your arguments to your client so that they are well-informed and mo)vated to act Need a policy that can work and then need to convince the audience that it can work Policy Stream Window of opportunity 12 8/16/11 Group Exercise Despite a legal drinking age of 21, the rate of drinking on college campuses and even high schools is very high. Having a high drinking age encourages secre)ve behavior, binge drinking, and perhaps even use of other illegal substances. There is very li_le enforcement of drinking age laws by package stores and bars. The penal)es associated with drinking under age do not seem to deter the behavior. What can be done to address this problem with policy? Client: Congress member In groups of 4-5, come up with 3 evalua:on criteria and 3 policy op:ons (15 minutes). Then, each group will report to the whole class. Ethical Considera)ons Say you got a job as a policy analyst next year. Which value would be most important to you? Analy)cal integrity (e.g. you want to be an objec)ve technician) Responsibility to client (you want to be a client's advocate) Adherence to one's personal concep)on of the good society (you want to be an issue advocate) 13 8/16/11 Value Conflicts Client doesn't like your conclusions and wants you to change the conclusion by either removing some results or changing your interpreta)on of the results. What do you do? Figure 3.1 Alterna7ve Responses to Value Conflict VOICE Protest Speak Out Until Silenced Resign and Leak Disclose Sabotage DISLOYALTY Issue Ultimatum EXIT Resign 14 8/16/11 Exercise Take a few minutes to think of a scenario that would lead you to resign from a government posi)on. Specify the government posi)on, and the issue that would provoke your resigna)on. For next )me Read Chs. 2, 3 & 15 covering today's lecture Read Musso paper on professional wri)ng Read Chs. 4 & 14 for next week's lecture HW1: CITI training on Human Subjects Research (social science basic course) h_p://www.ovpr.uga.edu/hso/training/ instruc)ons. Print comple)on report when done and hand it for credit. 15 ...
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This note was uploaded on 01/18/2012 for the course PADP 8670 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at UGA.
- Fall '10