The Realities!

The Realities! - The Realities! Forecasts are seldom...

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1 The Realities! þ Forecasts are seldom perfect þ Most techniques assume an underlying stability in the system þ Product family and aggregated forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts
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2 Forecasting Approaches þ Used when situation is vague and little data exist þ New products þ New technology þ Involves intuition, experience þ e.g., forecasting sales on Internet Qualitative Methods
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3 Forecasting Approaches þ Used when situation is ‘stable’ and historical data exist þ Existing products þ Current technology þ Involves mathematical techniques þ e.g., forecasting sales of color televisions Quantitative Methods
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4 Overview of Qualitative Methods þ Jury of executive opinion þ Pool opinions of high-level executives, sometimes augment by statistical models þ Delphi method þ Panel of experts, queried iteratively þ Sales force composite þ Estimates from individual salespersons are reviewed for reasonableness, then aggregated
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The Realities! - The Realities! Forecasts are seldom...

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