PS_12_Winter_2011_Slides_for_Lectures_12-13

PS_12_Winter_2011_Slides_for_Lectures_12-13 - Question:...

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Question: Why does the American electorate consistently  vote to return incumbents to office but also support  term limits to remove incumbents from office? LECTURE 8 OUTLINE I. The Incumbency Puzzle – high incumbent success + public support for term limits II. Contributors to the Puzzle: nature of competition + public’s behavior + structural effects :
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Question: Why does the American electorate consistently  vote to return incumbents to office but also support  term limits to remove incumbents from office? LECTURE 8 OUTLINE I. The Incumbency Puzzle – high incumbent success + public support for term limits II. Contributors to the Puzzle: nature of competition + public’s behavior + structural effects :
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Nature of Competition Incumbents have passed through the filter of at least one election; challengers have not Public s Behavior Voting behavior by the public based on name recognition favors incumbents Psychology of localism means the public views their own members as atypical Structural Effects Advantages of office And… Gerrymandering
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U.S. citizens may obtain a flag that has flown over the House or Senate chamber. Members of Congress take great pride in giving away to their constituents these patriotic gifts that have flown proudly over the nation's Capitol. The legislators do not tell recipients of the flags that periodically a staff aide climbs to the top of the building with a stack of flags, runs each one quickly up and down the pole, and then certifies it as an official Capitol flag. PS 12 Factoid
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Question: What does it mean to say that structure  affects outcomes in politics? LECTURE 9 OUTLINE I. Background to Gerrymandering: Population and Apportionment II. Re-districting III. Why politics is like football
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Article I, Section 2 Representatives… shall be apportioned among the several States… according to their respective Numbers... The actual Enumeration shall be made… within every subsequent Term of ten Years…
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Population Growth Rates 1990-2000 by State
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California Population, 2000 US Census Bureau: 12.06% of US population lives in California, up from 11.98% in 1990. Outcome: California gained 1 seat in the House States gaining big in 2000: TX, GA, FL, AZ - 2 seats States losing big: PA, NY - 2 seatsfastest growing states were Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona - each get TWO new seats slowest growing states were Pennsylvania and New York, each of whom have to give up two seats
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California Population, 2010 US Census Bureau Count: 37.3M California State Dept. of Finance: 38.3M No change in number of seats for us
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Question: What does it mean to say that structure  affects outcomes in politics? LECTURE 9 OUTLINE I. Background to Gerrymandering: Population and Apportionment II. Re-districting III. Why politics is like football
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Santa Barbara: 22nd District Before 2000
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Santa Barbara: 23rd District after 2000
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Example of Re-districting for partisan advantage Assume a hypothetical state with the following: 1. 900,000 residents 2. a city w/ 600,000 residents, all Democrats 3. rural areas w/300,000 residents, all Republicans
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