HW-10 Solutions - 1 CE 398 Introduction to Civil...

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1 CE 398 Introduction to Civil Engineering Systems Design, FALL 2011 Homework 10. The Phases of Needs Assessment and System Planning Due Thursday, November 10, 2011 Name: SOL U. TIONS QUESTION 1 Needs Asesssment for CE Systems Engineer X has claimed that the demand of a certain civil engineering system is a function of time. (a) Using the data in the table below and appropriate statistical software (SPSS or Minitab), develop an empirical relationship between the system demand and time (years). For 2000, use 0; for 2001, use 1, etc. (b) To investigate the claim that time (years) is a significant predictor of the system demand, set up an appropriate hypothesis test and assess the validity of the claim. Assume that the population of observations is normally distrbuted, and that we seek to be right in our predictions 90% of the time. (c) Use your model from (a) to predict the system demand for each year from 2011 through 2025. (d) Plot a graph of the system demand vs. time (years from 2000 to 2025). (e) If the predicted demand at each year between 2011 and 2025 were not deterministic as your model suggests but could fall anywhere from ±20% of the demand predicted by the model for that year, determine, for each year, the upper-bound and lower-bound predictions of demand; and plot a graph of the system demand vs. time (years from 2000 to 2025). For demand at years 2011 to 2025, show as a band or envelope rather than just a deterministic line. Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand (millions) 0.40 0.42 0.38 0.37 0.49 0.45 0.48 0.47 0.58 0.58 0.61 SOLUTION Demand = 0.0022( time ) 2 + 0.0002( time ) + 0.3963 [NOTE TO GRADER: A suitable equation should be provided and there should be evidence that the student used SPSS or MINITAB to get the equation. This evidence may be an attachment of the PSS pr MINTAN output here or at the end of this HW submission as an appendix.
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