interpretation - positive correlation coefficient The AR1...

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INTERPRETATION The graph shows the trend in the number of birth in Tarlac City within 30 years from 1981-2010. It displays a persistent upward pattern of movement. Since 1981 to 2010 there is only a gradual increase in the number of birth. The increase of birth in the Philippines is related in the economy of the people and the new technologies exist like liberated movies and others. Using the moving average in smoothing, MA process with the longer length is smoother. In the data, MA process of length 5 is smoother than the MA process of length 3. As discuss, MA process depends on the length. When exponential smoothing is to be use, given the RMSE values of ES with constant 0.4 and ES with constant 0.7 of 406.446 and 173.448 of, respectively. The ES with constant 0.7 is smoother because it gives the smallest value of RMSE. The Auto-regressive Model of Order 1 correlogram is computed to know if the AR1 Model is appropriate. LAG 1 gives the highest negative value and LAG 2 gives the highest
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Unformatted text preview: positive correlation coefficient. The AR1 Model graph of correlogram gives a sine wave function which indicates an alternating positive and negative signs. The Auto-regressice Model of Order 2 correlogram is also computed to know if the AR2 Model is appropriate. In the graph, the correlation coefficient shows an exponential decay. It satisfies stationarity. The highest positive value of correlation coefficient was given at LAG 1 and LAG 10 gives the smallest correlation coefficient value. As a conclusion, the data revealed in the different models performed in the 30 years data of Tarlac City, the autoregressive of order 1 and autoregressive of the order 2 shows the value of RMSE of 565.1061446 and 8429.241021 respectively. This states that the best model is the auto-regressive of order 2 because it has the smallest value of RMSE....
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