Forecasting examples

Forecasting examples - Sheet1 MSOM Class Examples...

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Sheet1 Page 1 MSOM Class Examples Forecasting POM Answers for Forecast LPD Averaging Naïve or LPD Method Wrong Month Demands Forecast Error Forecast Error Measure Value May 22 X X X X Error Measures June 25 22 3 22 3 Bias (Mean Error) 23.25 July 21 25 4 23.5 2.5 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 23.25 August 24 21 3 22.67 1.33 MSE (Mean Squared Error) 542.75 September 23 24 1 23 0 Standard Error (denom=n-2=2) 32.947 October ? 23 2.75 23 1.71 MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 0.12 Forecast On this series of data it is better to be more smooth instead of more responsive next period 23 because the averaging method proved to have less of an error Moving Average (N=2) Wrong Moving Average (N=3) LPD Averaging Moving Average n=2 Measure Value Measure Value Month Demands Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error Error Measures Error Measures Worse so stop May 22 X X X X X X Bias (Mean Error) 22.667 Bias (Mean Error) 23.5 June 25 22 3 22 3 22 3 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 22.667 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
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This note was uploaded on 01/25/2012 for the course MSOM 3101 taught by Professor Levi during the Fall '08 term at Temple.

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