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LO-18A Obama - LO-18 Barack Obama Situation On Entering...

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LO-18 Barack Obama Situation On Entering Office • U.S. Mil Forces involved in 2 Major Conflicts •Afghanistan •Situation deteriorating •Iraq: •Surge seems to have helped • N Korea reported to possess nuclear wpns • Iran believed by US to be seeking nuc wpns caps • Relations with Russia faltering • Israel-Palestinian Conflict On-going Major Objectives Stable govt in Iraq/End US. Force deployments • Stable Afghanistan/w weakened Taliban + bin Laden captured • Reduction in Worldwide Terrorism • Reduce/eliminate nuclear weapons strengthen non-proliferation regime • Reduce/eliminate violent extremism • Improve Global Economic Conditions • Advance Democracy • Advance International Cooperation (an era of engagement), while respecting Sovereignty Afghanistan U.S. Concerns • War against Taliban, al Qaeda not going well • Bin Laden & Mullah Mohammed Omar continue to elude capture • Legitimacy of Pres Hamid Karzai govt in question • Other Concerns? o Stability of Pakistan, relationship somewhat strained o Military bases in Central Asia o Supply routes through Russia U.S. Objectives • Refocus on Threat from al Qaeda in Afghanistan & Pakistan –Disrupt, dismantle, & defeat –Prevent their return in future • Withdraw US forces from Afghanistan • Other objectives? o Reverse decline in US-Pak relations o Maintain status of Manas Air Base, Kyrgzstan o Improve relations with Russia to secure supply routes.
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U.S. Options • Begin withdrawal • Fortify major cities and rebuild infrastructure • Seek assistance of local clans for defense • Increase forces levels by up to 40,000 additional troops (surge option) – set at 30,000 by December 2, withdrawal date o No blank check to Pakistan government – must demonstrate commitment • Other Options? Decision on Strategy December 1, 2009 8pm, US military address at West Point Surge of 30K (at peak US had 101,000) Outcome Violence continues (recent ethic violence attributed to violent Pakistani groups) But some progress on stabilizing made US withdrawaing from Afghanistan June 2011: Obama pledges 33K troops out by September 2012 o 10K before end of 2011, 70K remain All to be withdrawn by 2014 Currently about 150K allied troops in Afghanistan o US 101K , UA allies 40K Voices of Support and Concern Support o Many feel we’ve been there long enough o Can’t solve all their problems o Remaining there reduces incentives for them to get own house in order o Us and allied troops may increase size of opposition Concerns o Withdrawing too soon o Turbulence will increase Iraq U.S. Concerns U.S. forces still engaged nearly 6 years after beginning of war • Stability still in question • Iraqi forces not yet able to assume full responsibility for security • Timeline for future U.S. withdrawal remains in doubt • Other concerns?
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