JustinLin-China_and_the_Global_Economy-SF-Fed-final

JustinLin-China_and_the_Global_Economy-SF-Fed-final - China...

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1 China and the Global Economy 1 Justin Yifu Lin Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President World Bank Remarks at the Conference “Asia’s Role in the Post - Crisis Global Economy” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, November 29, 2011 I. Introduction It is a great pleasure to be with you here today to discuss the role of Asia in the Post- Crisis Global Economy; that is, to the extent that the global economy is truly “post - crisis.” My focus will be on my home country: China is obviously the biggest story out of Asia in terms of economic growth in recent decades and the growth in China has been a driving force for the recovery from the global crisis since 2009. As a Chinese economist and specialist on economic development, I have had the good fortune to witness and participate in the policy debate over this remarkable period since returning to China with a PhD in economics in 1987. I will organize my remarks around the following four themes: (i) China’s achievements since the initiation of economic reforms in 1979; (ii) Prospects for China’s growth in the coming decades; (iii) Challenges for China’s future growth; and (iv) The role of China in the multi-polar growth world. II. China’s Achievements Since the Reform and Opening in 1979 China started the reform and opening in 1979 and achieved an annual growth rate of 9 percent between 1979 and 1990. At the end of that period and even up to early 2000s, many scholars still believed that China could not continue that growth rate much longer due to the lack of fundamental reforms. 2 But China’s annual growth rate during the period 1990-2010 increased to 10.4 percent. On the global economic scene, China ’s growth since the reform and opening started has been unprecedented. This was a dramatic contrast with the depressing performance of other transitional economies in Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union. As a result of the extraordinary performance, there has been a dramatic change in China’s status in the global economy. When China embarked on its economic reform program in 1979, the world’s most populous country barely registered on the global economic scale, commanding a mere 1.8 percent of global GDP (measured in current US dollars). Today, it is the world’s second largest economy and produces 9.3 percent of global GDP (Figure 1). 1 I am grateful for David Rosenblatt’s help in preparing the paper. 2 The Coming Collapse of China by Gordon H. Chang , published in 2001 by Random House, was one representation of such views.
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2 China’s exports grew by 16 percent per year from 1979 to 2009. At the start of that period, China’s exports represent ed a mere 0.8 percent of global exports of goods and non-factor services. Now China is the largest exporter of goods in the world with 9.6 percent of the global share, and an 8.4 percent share of goods and non-factor services (Figures 2a and 2b).
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JustinLin-China_and_the_Global_Economy-SF-Fed-final - China...

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