Uzbekistan-final

Uzbekistan-final - Public Lecture Uzbekistan New Strategies...

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Public Lecture Tashkent, July 7 2011 Uzbekistan: New Strategies and Opportunities for Structural Transformation Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The World Bank
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Uzbekistan is one of the best performing transition economies: --Its GDP only declined 19% at the beginning of transition, the smallest among the CIS countries. --Its GDP growth rate reached 5.7 percent annually since 1995 and averaged 8 percent since mid 2000s. --It continues to grow dynamically during the global crisis 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 GDP (1990=1) Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Estonia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Lithuania Latvia Moldova Russia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan
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However, compared to the transition economies in East Asia, Uzbekistan’s economic performance can be further improved: -- The annual GDP growth rate in China, Vietnam, Cambodia and Lao in 1990- 2009 reached 10.4%, 7.5%, 7.7% and 6.5% respectively. --In 1990, China’s per capita was half of Uzbekistan’s, it increased to 2.5 times of Uzbekistan’s in 2009. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP (1990=1) Uzbekistan China Vietnam Cambodia Lao 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990199219941996199820002002200420062008 Per Capita Income (Constant 2000 Dollar) China Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Uzbekistan
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I believe that every developing country in the world has the potential to grow at 8 or more percent annually continuously for several decades, avoiding the middle-income trap, and becomes a high-income country within one or two generations As long as the government’s policy is right and is implemented well, Uzbekistan’s goal of becoming an industrialized high middle-income country by mid century can be achieved or even out performed I hope to share some new insights about how a developing country can tap into its growth potential and contribute to the policy discussions in Uzbekistan Purpose of the presentation
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Overview of Presentation The need for rethinking development The New Structural Economics The Growth Identification and Facilitation: An application of new structural economics The New Opportunities for Uzbekistan in the Multi-polar Growth World Concluding remarks 5
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WHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVELOPMENT 6
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Economic Crisis and Crisis in Economics Economic Theory Explain Observed Economic Phenomena Guide Economic Policies or Choices Rethinking Economics Failure to: Failure to: 7
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How has economic development theory evolved? 1950 1960 2010 2000 1970 1980 1990 Structuralist Approach Focus on Market Failures: Import Substitution Strategy Miserable results Liberalization Approach Focus on Government Failures: Privatization and Marketization Mixed Results Market based economies with proactive role for government Successful East Asian Tigers: Export Promotion China, Vietnam and Mauritius: Dual-track approach to transition Rethink Development 8
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World Bank has been in the process of rethinking economic development
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This note was uploaded on 01/25/2012 for the course COMM 321 taught by Professor Erinmcclellan during the Spring '11 term at Boise State.

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Uzbekistan-final - Public Lecture Uzbekistan New Strategies...

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