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Chapter13b - Weather Forecasting II Review...

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Weather Forecasting - II
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Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as  numerical weather  prediction . Mathematical models that describe how atmospheric temperature, pressure,  winds and moisture will change with time are programmed into the computer. The computer  then draws surface and upper-air charts, and produces a variety of forecasts called  progs After a number of days, flaws in the computer models – atmospheric  chaos  and small  errors  in the data  – greatly limit the accuracy of weather forecasts. Available to the forecaster are a number of tools that can be used when making a forecast,  including surface and upper-air maps, computer progs, meteograms, soundings, and satellite  information. Ensemble forecasting  is a technique based on running several forecast models (or different  versions of a single model), each beginning with slightly different weather information to  reflect the errors in the measurements (similar to BCS computer averages).
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Ensemble forecasting A technique to improve medium- range forecasts Run different models Run the same model with  slightly different initial  conditions Superimpose all results on the  same graph “Spaghetti plot”  The most common outcome is  probably the most likely one
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Forecasting Tools AWIPS –  Advanced Weather Interactive Processing  System Meteogram –
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