2005a - 7111731 I‘PVJYJ‘I J'IU'DTID‘ T||77FIDTI 3D...

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Unformatted text preview: 7111731 I‘PVJYJ‘I J'IU'DTID‘ T||77FIDTI 3D] 11’113'13 J‘IU’U'II’J‘IN '3 mono ,nnown (364—14041) auwn‘p munon‘: mm #0113 2005 1513 12 mum-1 .1 'D'fifl :ns‘m '2 T917: - mason ”1‘”: 111113 .Md-Ir IF U" r— -' ’ mmvn mawn nv-rm': np'mnn .‘H J ALI-HUI!“ I" H 31‘ lot VJ 'JWIHJ HAN-fol [IJWJJIJ HU/JJH 1‘ (I JV-HIJJ J'JII’JJ 'Jh’c‘l [J'— l'l)‘ ”if.” .'JHI‘U"JUHH_III 1-H] [WI-f .er’nnnm’ynb , mm ’m’zn nnn’; ,aunwm a’wmo rm? 22271wa ’73: . mbwn b: ’71! 7:31:17»an (12%) 1 nbxw .nznvm 171 {mm N55 2 mm: Obs: 0N) mmn mayor: van 17m .onwbo mm -X,Y mm,» 12) (mm: N'J'l 1mm 52: mannn 1131: may? NJ) 113: Nb I112: anb, 15()()2 s E(X2) .A 112: Nb I112) X 535, V(X) 2 0X .3 11:: N5 / 11:: .t 53‘), X 533 fX (t) 3 FX (t) .C 11:: N5 I113: uvvbvbw-m Y, X but» , V(X + Y) 2 V(X) + V(Y) .D 113mb / 1m E(max(X , Y )) = E(X) :w 13 Y ,X omnp .E 112: Nb 111:: Y, X 53': , cov(max(X , Y ), min(X, Y)) 2 0 AF ; 31-1519 (mam 1mm» mm: W) nnmm mu m mm -A V(X) = 0.25;ch = 0.5 man“; man Nb ~B f(x) 2 O ,F(x) 51 >3 mm ND -C Y,X 5w mm:- wp #52) 757va mmb 51:» cov(X, Y) 13 mm Nb —D X ~ U (10,100),Y ~ U(0,1) mm mm -E .nuwnn 11w nN ubznp 135111": X ,Y ‘wm: m: m tun , X ~ U (1 0,20), Y = —X W935 ,113) Nb -F (30%) 2 n'mw .(J'I’TTS ”05):” mwm HD’JD) THI'IDJIND J'I'IUUD 2 VJ’ D331 113F131: 3D 53 EDP-I121 31105331 DW‘UJNDH .J'VTTSD fiD’JDn T11 'WJND DWJJN 1111’ D573?) 39 03033) JT’VJN'WI DUUDTI 111' nuns: mnnnn 1m .nmw [10,210] mnm 1mm 15mm (np‘nnn bbD) mun-m nuns: nmnnn 1m .omw 13me w mnnrm um 13: mbn-m nun: 12m) .111wa 59 nbmn cm momma beam taps-ran b‘m) nv-r-rxn .umw (mm: m 2 3121317} mrmb nuns: mnnn mm; 70-?) ”1111‘: ant! npmbw ovwmn firm 17m (N (1117);?) 5 ) z nvwmn nwnnn wan mnw m'umm mo ,mnw 70-h ~mv 1mm own (3 .311va 70-): mm nmnn Dunn 5111) so-n "ma? mnnb mmw mwm 200 1mm: munvnn nu rum (1 (mums) .mbumnn nubsmm man on) 11111245 — ntvm nwmn numb 3mm mbw .mrmb nounn 1m: nnm-u mm»: mm vmbw (1 mm own? v» mnn "VIN mnnn now on) mbww munvn rm .(nnm-u mnnn 11mm 015mm (:73an :0) .qmn w swam nwnb Tn: 1m mus-numb :mm mnnn 1m -T ,Hnmw 70-): "law vnnnb" -A ,mwm *1wa 13mm" 43:17:03 mm ‘1wa mm: -X = T | B til-DD 11vI1/xu....-.. . .n-’ . 3“] + 23-h}, - ‘1 :~ I [71'] 3171311 H’WNJ'I TIUTJF'D' HPP'HDJ‘I 11).] 117113121 nuvu'unm '3 100m: ,nwown (364-1-1041) :"wnb munonb man :0117, 2005 35m 12 . $313131 .1 Jammy-mm >173 700:) nmnn - Y = T | E : nnbwn munun 51mm (N P(A) = PM | B)*P(B)+P(A | E)*P(E) = P(X 5 70) *P(B)+ P(Y > 70)*P(E) = = P(X > 70)*2/3+P(Y > 70)*1/3 X ~ Uc(10,210) => P(X > 70) = 0.7 2 P A = 0.567 Y ~ Exp(59) => P(Y > 70) =1— FY (70) = 0.3} > ( ) :UN’ZI (21 3|: 1' P(B|A): P(AmB) : P(A|B) P(B) = 0.7 273 30.82 P(A) 0.567 0.567 approx X~ 30.00 0.43): X ~ N(86 7, «57.6 56 )0 P(X > 80) = P(X > 80.5) =1—P(X s 80.5) = 1 —¢(—1 .01) = ¢(1.01) = 0.84 (1 P(X > Y) :mbmvnmbn :mbn-m 5:03 1 1 e-iy -—-— 55’ 10<x<210, >0 f8(x,y)=fx(x)/y(y)= 200 59 y 0 else 210;: I 1 e__l_yd W19 210x fly PX>Y=PY<10+ ——- dx=1—e 59+ _.__. es9ddx ( ) ( ) 1110200 598 dy .1 l£200 59 y 07" _10 210210 e‘gléy _ 659+ _ dXd 1J200_ 593 y 01‘ 210:0 1 1 l 5%}? 1— —- - 59 dd J‘J‘200 59 8 J” (25%) 3 :1wa W157)? mm umuv 53 100mm 15.1an ("mus-numb man" Nb) 7mm 011p 1110 Tm: nmmmnnmn nnm :17:an 1mm 11-000 05031100 17:01 .nmbwn 0721071 cmnnn my 77) 3730323710 3311):) omuo 5v; 117371 mam 7 17:17: 2 11m; 71H’J‘l TI’WW‘! TID'IJI'I? HPDWQH 1133 117111—13 ND’U'IJ’NN ,3 "mum ,nr'own Q (3644-1041) Juwnb munonb Nun :U‘np 2005 )bv 12 132113331 .1 0119 :nan . — 1m: to: m'noo b3 wsw m-n .nmwn :man mun bw 11mm: 33w: 11mm (05205»: bwnb) ’71wa name .mm‘m mbn 01313371 530 numb 1an .(qun 11mm) mmm ,nw‘vn) [0,100] mm: nun "hm 32mm: uurunn .mwm numb man: 2-: .7“) W ,0anan 3 533 mu 0mm: 52)?) Damn {nm,7.110) ! ”3 1mm 2" my cum: nbmn awn .N (mm; 10) I”2 1mm 1" W 0mm nbnm man .2 vnp 30m mbw 03mm 20 mm m nun .nmw mbmn mw nbznp ’2 «1 'N mmva rm: .1 "Nb" 'IN "13" mwb v» zmnN now) 339 b)! (nbn'm mu 5» p1) nnN many qvwnb 1mm (nmncm (mm: 5 ) . t! a! omswn 3 w) 035m: macaw : fins 31-11-19 4:90: (N X1,X2,X3 : (71mm: 110 395) man: 3 my mm 1111):: 11m -) X “PX WX .mm 39‘» man: 3 W) cm»: Y1 , Y2 : pant-13113 “no web) nun: 2 w mm: 1111?: 11m -> Y(1)’Y(2) (1173 195) nun: 3 W 0mm 3 11m: 2 W 20311:»: -X 2 “mm 1 w mums-Y E(X.:) E(Y.)= (50+100)/2= 75<= X, ~U (50,100) "3 11m 2” 1 Wm: X— Xm+Xm sz(2)+X +X(”_XU)=X3+X2+XI_fi 2 2 2 2 2 +X X E(X)=E[_X3+X22 |__ 2(1) =112.5 —E(Xm)/2 x 100—): 3_x fxtl,(x)=n(1— F(x))"'f(x)= 3- (l‘fia’ 1—00 =( 100 +100 J=3E(Xi)/2—E(Xm)/2=3-50/2-E(Xm)/2 100 100- x 2 3362 EX = —dx =25 ( m) 0“ 100 ) 100 E(X)=62.5 .mwnm mm): so my 111: — (mm 111: 13m» mb) nun bw mmn awn”; Tn: 1m :mvn ”2 111m 1" tub y— 100) 2 _ F n— -l 2 __ _ fyu,(y)— n( 02)) f(y)= (100) 100 =( 100 -)10—0 y- —100) 2_y 100 )100 E(Y)=E(Y 2,)= J'( —dy— 66. 667 "2 1mm 1" m1» nbmnn mmnn 7 11m: 3 T1733? JITPJ'I TI’WNJ'I TIU'TJTD npvnnn 3131 11"“)‘11 DO’UWJ’JTN '1 100m: ,nvuwn (364-1-1041) 3"wa 11111110715 mm :01)? 2005 >513 12 vzmun .) 6119:1131): w~ 1353:1111er m 13 53x mm “1111‘ mom "2 11m: 1" 5w mmn 41310 nm‘: my: 2m n"n 5w nmwn ms: N‘? (:1 1m (1313;) 1113 nay-mm ammo um um .nwnwn mrwn nmxb run-m ‘7":n nfimnrm 11:2: 1133 52,75 1m: wnv .n"n 5w nubbnn bwn‘a 1r nn‘vwmn awn-115mm .mm 11111 ‘mz ,‘nm (33%) m .(ow'm rum) OABC yum m 511 p1 99w: nbm mmwn mam: mxpm wm man-11 vpzn nnn X,Y an» 2 >9 mm 13mm wbwm m»: munvn : 1:31—53) . P((X,Y)e AOAB) = 2 - P((X,Y) e AOBC) unpnnw m) :2! 11m ,mnnm wmm 51mm (1 (x,y) E AOAB fxy (Jay) 2 bxy (x,y) E AOBC 0 else (mm: :0) a,b anon-19 man .1“! puma) I nmbn Y,X nun .2 (mm: 10) T COV(X, Y) 3WD .1 1 {17773715} ( fn has (y) 123153) Y | X :5 w 31193an naspm awn .1 2 11115 7 11m: 4 11m: DIFPJ‘I TI’WNTI I'IU'TJTD TIPZFHDT'I JJJZI. “rm-1:1 DD’UWJ’J‘IN '2 ":9an ,nuuwn (364-14041) mynb m-mwnb mm mm 2005 3‘21? 12 ‘PJ'IJ’J'I .1 lsnnmsm ‘ 7 TIN: 5 11m: D'IT'I’J‘I mwn HUTJI‘D npvnnn JJJZI 11"“):11 J'ID’D'IJ’JLN I: wont? ,n'ruwn 9 (364-14041) nnwnb nnnnonb man :mw 2005,51, 12 _ 11113131.: Innszns'm L F J/i‘é'a’ #4995 My (97 ~ J .I‘ t I 1 $ . 7f 3 1/ I . ‘I V, ‘ a — ,1 r - b- - ' r , m - n a! r ’L jg (I) K] /er) ‘5‘ ‘ /31J J] /5 J ’3 ‘5 5 ' J . “.1 U 1; , f g .3 ”if, V . . ”' * '3 1 * 3 "L * ‘3. , 0 15“ 4 f, (x) " IL 0 } " x w‘ 7 11m: 6 11m: ZF‘II‘PJ'I H’VJND J'IU'DI—D npvnnn 21)): 11,1111] J‘IU’U'II-‘J'IN ’3 100130 ,TI"DVJJ’1 (3644-1041) anwnb mununb man Ann 2005 "21’ 12 \pzmuw .) ems :nx-m cwfxwh mev-ivvgmj (3 4' ~ ‘9 *f J-E 5W Hawgwwx gag 3’ 7- 2,” v J Y 3N?— E”)://§J " “BENZ/J" ‘33 “a 3' ’25; -f f1 awfyyfiflci { %%ai= §J O‘yi JY/i-0§{J) : j g. 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