Chapter 13

Chapter 13 - Chapter 13 Methods of Forecasting by People...

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Chapter 13 Methods of Forecasting by People Folklore Forecasts are short saying that attempt to predict the weather based on sky conditions, special days of the calendar, or the behavior of animals. Persistence and Climatology o Persistence Forecast-the weather you are having now will be the weather you are having later, tomorrow’s weather will be the same as today. o Climatology Forecasts- relies on the observation that weather for a particular day at a location doesn’t change much from one year to the next. Trend and Analog o Trend Forecasts- acknowledges that weather does change, but it assumes that the weather-causing patterns are themselves unchanging in speed, size, intensity, and direction of movement. Accuracy of these forecasts declines if made for longer than a few hours ahead. § Nowcasting is forecasting for a brief period of time, such as several hours. o Analog Forecasts acknowledge that weather changes, but, unlike the trend method, it assumes that weather patterns can evolve with time. It is an empirical method of forecasting that uses past weather events that resemble the current conditions to create forecasts for the days ahead. o Requires many years of weather maps and an efficient way to compare one map to another. One approach is to categorize according to Weather Types .
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This note was uploaded on 01/30/2012 for the course AOSC 200 taught by Professor Hudson during the Fall '08 term at Maryland.

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Chapter 13 - Chapter 13 Methods of Forecasting by People...

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