lec18-eco101-11

lec18-eco101-11 - InternationalTrade Lecture18 c ⃝...

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Unformatted text preview: InternationalTrade Lecture18 c ⃝ Marc-AndreasMuendler UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego December1,2011 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler InternationalEconomicIntegration • Impactsofandbacklashestopriorperiodsof globalization • Fourmainaspectsofinternationaleconomicintegration – Internationaltradeingoods – Internationalmonetaryrelations – Internationalcapitalflows – Internationalmigration 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler HowGlobalAreWeByHistoricComparison? • Internationaltradeingoods:SharesoftradeinGDPhaverecovered fromthefirstglobalperiod1880-1914 • Internationalmonetarysystem:An“introspectionmeasure”ofcapital mobility(byObstfeld&Taylor2003)showsareturntotheendofthe firstglobalperiod1914 • Internationalcapitalflows:Foreigndirectinvestmentnewlyimportant • Internationalmigration:Sharesofforeign-bornpopulationsseemto exceedthelevelsoftheearly1900s,butnotinthe“NewWorld” 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler ShareofExportsinWorldGDP,1820-1992(1990prices) . 5 . 1 . 1 5 S h a r e E x p o r t s in G D P (w o r ld ) 1820 1870 1900 1913 1929 1950 1973 1992 Calendar year Source :Maddison,1995(TablesE2,F3,I4) 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler CapitalMobilityby“Introspection” Source :ObstfeldandTaylor,2003 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler Foreign-bornPopulation,PercentageofTotalPopulation Country 1870-71 1890-91 1910-11 1997 2007 Europe Germany .05 0.9 1.9 12.1 12.9 France 2.0 3.0 3.0 7.3 8.5 UnitedKingdom 0.5 0.7 0.9 7.2 10.2 Denmark 3.0 3.3 3.1 5.2 6.9 Norway 1.6 2.4 2.3 5.8 9.5 Sweden 0.3 0.5 0.9 10.8 13.4 NewWorld Australia 46.5 31.8 17.1 23.2 25.0 NewZealand 63.5 41.5 30.3 16.4 21.6 Canada 16.5 13.3 11.20 17.7 20.1 UnitedStates 14.4 14.7 14.7 10.7 13.6 Argentina 12.1 25.5 29.9 5.0 a Sources :HattonandWilliamson,2005for1870-1911( a 2000);OECDObserver,2009for1997-2007 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler TradeandGrowth • Classictradetheoryadequatetoinvestigatewelfareimpactsoftradeforgivenproductionstructure • Tradetheorywithexternaleconomiesofscaleadequatetoinvestigatewelfareimpactsoftrade restrictionsorpromotionforgivenproductioncostschedule • Tradehasdistributionalconsequenceswithinaneconomy • Doestradeaffectthegrowthpath,andifso,how? 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent Econ101, c ⃝ M.Muendler UnbalancedGrowthchangingTrade • Inclassictradetheory,growthchangestrade buttradedoesnotchangegrowth • Inclassictradetheory,productivityisa“fundamental”andtradedoesnotaltertheproductionpos- sibilities • Inclassictradetheory,unbalancedgrowthalterstheopportunitycostandthereforethetradepat- tern. Inaddition,growthaffectstheToTandthereforethegainsfromtrade 18.EconomicIntegration:PastandPresent18....
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This note was uploaded on 01/30/2012 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Jacobson during the Fall '03 term at UCSD.

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lec18-eco101-11 - InternationalTrade Lecture18 c ⃝...

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