Leture 8 - Enviro nme nt & population Gatineau...

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Unformatted text preview: Enviro nme nt & population Gatineau Park, June 2008 Today Ge ne ra l re ma rks The politics of globa l wa rming De a ling with globa l wa rming Ge ne ral Re marks Jared Diamond: http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/media/200502/20050209thecurrent_sec3.ram Philos ophy, s cie nce , e conom ics , and politics P hilos ophy S cie nce Economics P olitics Precautionary principle Precautionary principle ""Whenan activity raises threats of When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. In this established scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, context the proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof." burden of proof." An inte rre late d s ys te m Sun / heat Sun / heat Outer space Plant life Animal life Sun / heat Microorganisms Soil Humans Outer space Outer space Water Atmosphere Sun / heat The biosphere Atmosphere Outer space Water Soil Sun / heat Global politics and the e nvironm e nt The "tra ge dy of the Commons " Avoiding the tra ge dy: s ome mile s tone s The Commons The Commons Antarctica Antarctica Atmosphere Atmosphere High seas High seas Ocean floor Ocean floor Space Space 1972: Unite d Na tions Confe re nce on the Huma n Environme nt 1987: the Brundtla nd Re port 1992: Unite d Na tions Confe re nce on Environme nt a nd De ve lopme nt (a .k.a . Ea rth S ummit & Rio S ummit) 2002: World S ummit on S us ta ina ble De ve lopme nt (a .k.a . Rio+10, J oha nne s burg S ummit) S us tainable de ve lopm e nt: Is it pos s ible ? Economy Sustainable development Sustainable development "... the development that "... the development that meets the needs of the meets the needs of the present without present without compromising the ability compromising the ability of future generations to of future generations to meet their own need ," meet their own needss," Brundtland Commis-sion, Brundtland Commis-sion, Our Common Future p. Our Common Future, ,p. 43. 43. Growth, jobs, rising incomes, consumption Viable world Equitable world ? Environment No disruption of nature Liveable world Social & economic equality Social Population growth 0-2009 AD Year 0 1000 1250 1500 1750 1800 Population (est.) 300 000 000 310 000 000 400 000 000 500 000 000 790 000 000 980 000 000 Year 1850 1900 1950 2000 2010 Population (est.) 1 260 000 000 1 650 000 000 2 520 000 000 6 000 000 000 6 900 000 000 23-fold increase Population or cons um ption? P opula tion growth Conce ntra te d in de ve loping countrie s P opula tion & re s ource s Ma lthus ia nis m s ta rva tion re s ource conflict te chnology & its limits 2010 6.9 billion Re duce births ... ...or cons umption? Me as uring pe ople 's im pact on nature : the e cological footprint See 1961 Ecological footprint & le ve l of de ve lopm e nt us ing the Hum an De ve lopm e nt Inde x (HDI) Major global e nvironm e ntal is s ue s Drinking wa te r De s e rtifica tion & fa rmla nd s ca rcity De fore s ta tion Los s of biodive rs ity & ge ne tic dive rs ity Globa l wa rming The po litic s o f g lo bal warming The is s ue Gre e nhous e ga s e s & the gre e nhous e e ffe ct Ma in s ource : fos s il fue ls (coa l, oil, ga s ) Ave ra ge te mpe ra ture ris e Why me ntion s ome time s jus t ca rbon & s ome time s GHGs ? Key GHGs - water vapour - carbon dioxide (CO2) - methane - nitrous oxide - chlorofluorocarbons - tropospheric ozone Not included in graph: water vapour http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Global warm ing by the num be rs Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC. (Arctic) + 0.45 + 1.45 + 0.6 + 0.4 + 0.3 (Antarctic) + 0.3 Source: IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC. Te m pe rature change s 1979-2005 Temperatures change from 1979-2005 measured at ground level (surface) and in the troposphere (atmosphere below 8,000-15,000m) Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC. S ignificant de ve lopm e nts ... Curre nt e ve nts gla cie rs me lting Change in precipitations North & S outh pole ice me lting and droughts 1900-2002 Gre e nla nd ice me lting ra in & drought Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC. e xtre me we a the r e ve nts Gre e nla nd ice gone 21-foot s e a ris e We s t Anta rctic Ice S he e t gone 16-foot s e a ris e thre s hold e ffe ct de re gula tion of world's clima te P os s ible future e ve nts How ba d will it ge t? Greenland summer thaw 1992-2007 West Antarctica Ice Sheet Winter ice limit 1992 2002 2007 ... with cons e que nce s De s truction of life a nd prope rty Conflict ove r fa rmla nd & wa te r Ma s s ive migra tion Cos tly a da ption (impos s ible for s ome ) Inte rna tiona l coope ra tion ne ce s s a ry Curre nt Is s ue 1: Ca nada & the North-W e s t Pas s age No globa l wa rming, no is s ue A s hortcut Inte rpre ting the P a s s a ge The pa rtie s Arctic summer ice 1979 Arctic summer ice 2003 Arctic summer ice 2008 See also: http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/global_change/atlas/images/polar_l.jpg NASA. (2009). "Satellites Show Arctic Literally on Thin Ice". Retrieved 4 March 2010, from http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic_thinice.html. Curre nt is s u e 2 : R us s ian cla im s in the Arctic 2007 Rus s ia n Arctic S urve y The contine nta l s he lf (1 , 2 ) a nd the e xclus ive e conomic zone (EEZ, world , Ca na da ) Oil & ga s in the oce a n floor Limiting g lo bal warming : The Kyo to Pro to c o l & be yo nd S cie ntific e vide nce , s cie ntific doubt, and the s truggle for public opinion Globa l wa rming s ke ptics Fa ll 2009: s cie ntis ts ' e ma ils controve rs y ("Clima te ga te ") Que s tioning the inde pe nde nce of ke y s poke s pe rs ons Al Gore (An Inconve nie nt Truth ) Ra je ndra P a cha uri (Cha ir of the IP CC) Errors in the IP CC la te s t re port The a la rmis m of the IP CC? Common skeptics' arguments Common skeptics' arguments Absence of scientific consensus Absence of scientific consensus Models are not reliable Models are not reliable Sun's activity causes warming Sun's activity causes warming Temperature records are imprecise Temperature records are imprecise Warming or cooling is not new Warming or cooling is not new W hat's be e n done : The Kyoto Protocol S igne d De c 1997 / in e ffe ct s ince Fe b 2005 38 indus tria l countrie s * a gre e d to 5.2% GHGs re duction unde r 1990 le ve l by 20082012 or 29% unde r 2010 pre dictions Is s ue s not re s olve d s ha re of de ve loping countrie s in GHG re ductions a gre e me nt in principle on e mis s ions tra ding Me a nwhile : e mis s ions ha ve ke pt incre a s ing * Excluding Australia, US, Lichtenstein and Monaco. A m ajor e conom ic is s ue Fos s il fue ls : the ma in s ource of e ne rgy For indus tria l countrie s cha nge in wa y of life a lte rna tive e ne rgy s ource s ma jor inve s tme nts de cline in tra ditiona l indus trie s no a cce s s to che a p e ne rgy no pos s ibility to ca tch up s a crifice for the North's pollution For de ve loping countrie s Environme nta l re gula tions & compe titive ne s s GHG e m is s ions 1990-2007 S ignifica nt incre a s e s for s ome We s te rn Europe a n s ta te s S ignifica nt re ductions in Ea s te rn Europe Compa ring Ca na da & the US A word a bout Ca na da & the US LULUCF: land-use, land-use change and forestry Depending on agriculture and tree-cutting the amount of carbon released varies throughout the year Carbon e m is s ions pe r country 1997-2007 NB: China surpassed the US in 2009 Carbon e m is s ions pe r capita by country 2007 Be yond the Kyoto Protocol: Cope nhage n 2009 & Cancun 2010 Source: Toonpool.com Cope nha ge n a gre e d to limit te mp incre a s e to 2C re cognize d the s cie ntific ca s e s e t no ta rge ts s e t no pe a k da te for e mis s ions s e t no de a dline for a n a gre e me nt no re pla ce me nt for Kyoto P rotocol did not a ddre s s de fore s ta tion de ve lop a da pta tion me cha nisms re porting of mitiga tion e fforts $30bn for de ve loping countrie s for 2010-12 $100bn by 2020 te chnology tra ns fe r ca pa city-building Ca ncun R e ducing GHG e m is s ions : Em is s ions trading A.k.a . "ca p-a nd-tra de " s ys te m De te rmining the tota l GHG e mis s ions a llowe d A ca rbon tra ding ma rke t The jus tifica tion R e ducing GHG e m is s ions : " Carbon tax" P utting a price on GHGs Ma king GHG pollution fina ncia lly una ttra ctive Offs e tting the ta x with ta x cuts e ls e whe re Difficulty of imple me nta tion Carbon offs e ts & carbon s inks Ca rbon offs e ts Ca rbon-producing a ctivitie s ... a re offs e t by s e que s tra tion a ctivitie s ... like tre e -pla nting Ca rbon s inks Anything tha t s e que s te rs ca rbon ... a nd re duce s its conce ntra tion in the a tmos phe re us e d by s ome gove rnme nts to a rgue tha t e mis s ions in the ir country a re compe ns a te d for Conclus ion Globa l importa nce P roble ms ca us e d by huma n a ctivity Implica tions for hundre ds of millions of pe ople S low motion ca ta s trophe Ca n only be limite d by a cha nge in be ha viour by pe ople ... a nd inte rna tiona l coope ra tion ...
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