ANCHORING%20EXPERIMENT-1

ANCHORING%20EXPERIMENT-1 - Our estimates of probabilities...

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1 Our estimates of probabilities and percentages are often quite vague. In situations where we are very uncertain, even a trivial piece of information can form an “anchor” – a starting point for our estimation. We tend to adjust our estimates from this anchor, but nevertheless remain too close to it. This isn’t something we do consciously, but we tend to do it, nonetheless. The following experiment, which we conducted in class, is a classic test of the anchoring and adjustment theory. Students were randomly “assigned” to one of three groups when three different sheets were randomly distributed in equal numbers in class. The texts for each sheet were as follows: Sheet 1(Experimental Group A): I have chosen (by computer) a random number between 0 and 100. The number selected and assigned to you is 65. Do you think the percentage of countries, among all those in the United Nations, that are in Africa is higher or lower than 65? Give your best estimate of the percentage of countries, among all those in the United Nations, that
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This note was uploaded on 01/31/2012 for the course POL 2107 taught by Professor Bourgault during the Spring '08 term at University of Ottawa.

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ANCHORING%20EXPERIMENT-1 - Our estimates of probabilities...

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