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Unformatted text preview: hired on the i th trial is best. Then P (1) = 1 N , P (2) = 1 N1 , ... ,P ( i ) = 1 Ni + 1 , ... ,P ( N ) = 1 . 1.33 Using Bayes rule P ( M  CB ) = P ( CB  M ) P ( M ) P ( CB  M ) P ( M ) + P ( CB  F ) P ( F ) = . 05 1 2 . 05 1 2 + . 0025 1 2 = . 9524 . 1.34 a. P (Brown Hair) = P (Brown Hair  Litter 1) P (Litter 1) + P (Brown Hair  Litter 2) P (Litter 2) = 2 3 1 2 + 3 5 1 2 = 19 30 . b. Use Bayes Theorem P (Litter 1  Brown Hair) = P ( BH  L 1) P ( L 1) P ( BH  L 1) P ( L 1) + P ( BH  L 2) P ( L 2 = ( 2 3 )( 1 2 ) 19 30 = 10 19 . 1.35 Clearly P (  B ) 0, and P ( S  B ) = 1. If A 1 ,A 2 ,... are disjoint, then P [ i =1 A i B ! = P ( S i =1 A i B ) P ( B ) = P ( S i =1 ( A i B )) P ( B ) = i =1 P ( A i B ) P ( B ) = X i =1 P ( A i  B ) ....
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This note was uploaded on 02/03/2012 for the course STA 1014 taught by Professor Dr.hackney during the Spring '12 term at UNF.
 Spring '12
 Dr.Hackney
 Statistics, Probability

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