Lecture7 - Lecture 7 Complex Events and Conditional...

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Lecture 7: Complex Events and Conditional Probabilities Chapter 5: Probability and Sampling Distributions 1/30/12 1 Lecture 7
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5.1 Chance Experiments A chance experiment (or a random experiment) - An activity or situation whose outcomes depend on chance to some degree. - To determine whether a given activity qualifies as a chance experiment, ask: Will I get exactly the same result if the experiment is repeated more than once? If the answer is “No”, then it is a chance experiment. - Examples: - determine whether a metal part withstands a stress test, - record if it rains tomorrow, - measure the yield of a chemical reaction, - assess the potency of a pharmaceutical product, - measure the volume of water flow in a drainage system.
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Events To compute probabilities, we need to work with the outcomes of chance experiments, which can be divided Into two types: Simple Events : individual outcomes Events : collections of simple events Sample Space: Obtained by taking all simple events together Venn Diagrams – useful for depicting relationships between events
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Venn Diagrams See from Pg 195, the textbook
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Example Consider: An experiment of tossing a coin three times Simple Events: e.g. HHT , THT , …. How many in total? 8 simple events: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT What is the sample space ?
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